Red chilli prices are displaying a period of remarkable stability, as current market dynamics indicate cautious optimism among stakeholders. Despite below-normal arrivals in major producing states like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka—mainly owing to recent rains disrupting crop movement—farmers are showing reluctance to release stock, expecting more favorable prices in the coming weeks. This phenomenon is buoyed by strong domestic and export demand, particularly from countries such as Bangladesh, China, and Sri Lanka, which is compensating for the lower volume of fresh arrivals.
Notably, premium varieties such as Teja and 334 are leading price gains, with buyers competing to secure their requirements in anticipation of tighter supplies or upward price movements. As the festival season and export cycle drive intensified buying interest, stockists and traders remain focused on inventory management, awaiting potential triggers for a price rally. The market outlook for the near term remains firm, barring any major supply-side surprise. This unique interplay between slow arrivals, firm demand, and bullish sentiment is keeping chili prices resilient through short-term disruptions, setting the stage for potentially more dynamic movements as the season progresses.
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Chilli dried whole
bird eye, grade a
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powder, grade a
FOB 4.42 €/kg
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Chilli dried
flakes, grade a
FOB 4.39 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Price Trends & Exchange Overview
| Variety | Location | Type | Price (EUR/kg, FOB) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Sentiment | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | New Delhi, IN | Bird Eye, Grade A, Organic | 4.71 | 4.70 | Firm | 2025-08-30 |
| Chilli dried powder | Andhra Pradesh, IN | Powder, Grade A, Organic | 4.45 | 4.44 | Firm | 2025-08-30 |
| Chilli dried flakes | Andhra Pradesh, IN | Flakes, Grade A, Organic | 4.42 | 4.41 | Stable | 2025-08-30 |
| Chilli dried (with stem) | Andhra Pradesh, IN | Whole, Non-Organic | 2.21 | 2.20 | Stable | 2025-08-30 |
| Chilli dried (stemless, Grade A) | Andhra Pradesh, IN | Whole, Non-Organic | 2.24 | 2.23 | Steady | 2025-08-30 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Slow arrivals: Daily shipments to key markets remain at 40,000–50,000 bags, much lower than seasonal norms due to disruptive weather.
- Producers are holding back stocks, anticipating better prices. Farmers are reluctant sellers in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka.
- Export demand is strong, particularly from Bangladesh, China, and Sri Lanka, providing critical price support despite limited supply.
- Robust domestic consumption during the festival season is maintaining steady off-take, further tightening local availability.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Comparative Trends
- Price range (USD/ton): $1,560–1,860 for most varieties, with Teja and 334 registering recent gains of $24–60/ton.
- Inventory management: Stockists expect higher prices and are not liquidating inventory unless forced by cash requirements.
- Speculative activity: Traders report increased forward booking in premium lines over the last fortnight.
- Global situation: Comparisons with previous months show ongoing firmness, with only modest week-on-week upticks.
(Reference: Last report indicated similar pricing stability but with slightly higher arrivals; the current market sees lower movement due to rain-related disruptions.)
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Recent weather: Heavy rainfall in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka has slowed crop movement and affected fresh arrivals. No major crop loss reported, but logistical delays persist.
- Short-term forecast: Next 7 days show sporadic showers, especially in Andhra Pradesh; dry spells are expected to follow, which could aid a resumption of arrivals by mid-next week.
- Yield implications: No significant reduction in yield forecast unless heavy rainfall continues.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | Annual Production (2024, est. 000 MT) | Key Export/Import Partners | Stock Trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1,750 | Bangladesh, China, Sri Lanka | Comfortable, but stockists holding on for better returns |
| China | 500 | India, Vietnam | Stable, import demand subdued |
| Vietnam | 300 | China, EU | Steady |
| Paksitan | 220 | Middle East | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔹 For exporters: Lock in contracts for premium grades where export demand remains robust and prices are firming.
- 🔹 For stockists: Continue holding inventory, as upside potential remains if arrivals stay slow and festival demand strengthens further.
- 🔹 For buyers/processors: Secure short-term needs soon, as the market may firm up again before fresh arrivals pick pace post-monsoon.
- 🔹 Monitor closely: Weather patterns and government updates can rapidly change local market sentiments.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Exchange/Market | Expected Price (USD/ton) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | Guntur/AP | 1,590–1,850 | Steady/Firm |
| Day 2 | Byadgi/KA | 1,570–1,820 | Steady |
| Day 3 | Khammam/Telangana | 1,560–1,860 | Firm/Upward bias |
