The red chilii market continues to display remarkable resilience, holding steady in a climate marked by limited supply and robust demand both from exporters and domestic processors. In major producing regions like Guntur and New Delhi, the wholesale price trajectory has experienced only a minor correction. Traders are closely monitoring daily arrivals, which currently oscillate between 5,000 and 10,000 bags, successfully balancing supply with active buying interest. This underpins ongoing price stability, despite some intermittent selling pressure.
Market participants remain optimistic as upcoming festivals are expected to further invigorate demand, keeping prices well-supported in the near term. Forecasts suggest that, barring any major external disruptions, significant price declines are unlikely in the coming weeks. Comparative analysis with previous market reports reveals a consistent pattern of firm pricing and incremental gains, reinforcing the perception of a fundamentally healthy market. Weather continues to be a key watch factor, with the need for sufficient rains to support both standing and upcoming chilli crops. In summary, the chilli market’s fundamentals remain strong, supported by coordinated supply management, unwavering export demand, and a favorable domestic consumption outlook.
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Chilli dried whole
bird eye, grade a
FOB 4.67 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
powder, grade a
FOB 4.42 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
flakes, grade a
FOB 4.38 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Latest Price (EUR/kg, FOB) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chili dried whole | Bird eye, Grade A, Organic | IN | New Delhi | 4.67 | +0.02 | Firm |
| Chili dried powder | Powder, Grade A, Organic | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 4.42 | +0.02 | Steady |
| Chili dried flakes | Flakes, Grade A, Organic | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 4.38 | +0.02 | Steady |
| Chili dried with stem | Conventional | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 2.17 | +0.02 | Stable |
| Chili dried whole stemless | Grade A | IN | Andhra Pradesh | 2.20 | +0.01 | Firm |
| Red Chili (334 new) | Wholesale | IN | Guntur (USD/100kg) | 198 | -6 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Arrivals: Guntur market reports daily arrivals of 5,000–10,000 bags, representing stable supply levels.
- Demand: Exporters and domestic processors are maintaining steady purchase interest. Festival seasons are expected to boost short-term consumption.
- Export Market: India’s position as a major exporter is preserved by consistent international demand, particularly from Asia and Middle Eastern markets.
- Short-term Trend: Marginal price correction attributed to some selling pressure, but underlying firmness remains due to tight balances.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA & Local Reports: No significant changes reported in crop acreage or inventory levels since last reporting period. Carry-forward stocks are moderate but sufficient against projected demand for the next quarter.
- Speculative Positioning: Traders note absent speculative excesses; institutional activity remains limited, providing a stable market foundation.
- Comparison to Last Report: Previous reports indicated similar price stability, with mild upward movements driven by export demand and limited carry-over stock.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- Andhra Pradesh & Telangana: Latest weather data shows normal monsoon patterns, but localized rainfall deficits are being watched. Some minor concerns persist for rain-dependent late crops.
- Short-term Outlook: Continued stable weather will favor sowing and preservation of stored stocks. Adverse weather could disrupt arrivals and impact prices upward.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
- India: World’s largest producer and exporter; supplies remain healthy.
- Vietnam, China: Steady output, but India maintains pricing power.
- Main Importers: USA, Middle East, Europe: steady off-take; minimal increase in tender activity reported.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Consider holding long positions ahead of anticipated festive demand upturn.
- Procurement agents should remain alert for possible price upticks in case of supply shocks or weather impacts.
- Exporters: Leverage steady prices to secure forward contracts; monitor logistics and shipment schedules closely.
- Monitor near-term weather in AP/Telangana for any signs of late monsoon disruptions.
- No signs of major price decline in short-term; steady-to-firm bias is recommended.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Exchange | Current Price | Forecast Range | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guntur (334 new, USD/100 kg) | 198 | 197–200 | Firm |
| New Delhi (Bird Eye, EUR/kg, FOB) | 4.67 | 4.65–4.70 | Steady |
| Andhra Pradesh (Powder, EUR/kg, FOB) | 4.42 | 4.40–4.45 | Stable |
