Rice Market 2025: Export Strength, Limited Supply Fuel Firm Prices

The global rice market is navigating a phase of robust export demand and restricted supply, setting a firm undertone for prices across major trading hubs. Recent trade activity has been especially pronounced for premium fine rice varieties, with exporters aggressively securing stocks amid tight arrivals—most notably Sathi paddy in the Indian states of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand remains in short supply. Basmati rice continues to stand out, as strong overseas orders and thin new crop availability have led to a moderate but steady rise in prices.

The 1718 Basmati variety, in particular, maintains strong buyer interest, commanding a premium on the back of sustained demand. Similarly, popular fine rice types such as 1509, 1401, and 1408 are witnessing vigorous trade, with rates varying by quality but generally holding firm. This environment of limited fresh arrivals coupled with persistent export buying is bolstering the entire rice complex. As harvest uncertainties and weather variability loom, both exporters and domestic buyers remain attentive, weighing supply-side risks against strong forward sales. Overall, the rice market outlook is constructive, with a clear tilt toward higher price potential in the near term, pending further developments in seasonal weather and global trade flows.

📈 Latest Rice Market Prices

Variety	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Closing Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
All Golden Sella	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.06	0.00	Firm
All Steam PR11	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.57	0.00	Stable
Sharbati Steam	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.72	0.00	Firm
1121 Steam	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.98	0.00	Firm
1509 Steam	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.92	0.00	Firm
1121 Creamy Sella	India	New Delhi	FOB	0.90	0.00	Firm
White Non-Basmati (Organic)	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.62	0.00	Stable
White Basmati (Organic)	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.92	0.00	Firm
Red Rice	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	0.90	+0.01	Stable
Jasmine	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	0.63	+0.01	Improving
Long White 5%	Vietnam	Hanoi	FOB	0.61	+0.01	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Export Demand: Persistent and strong, particularly for Indian Basmati and fine varieties. Exporters are actively purchasing, supporting overall market strength.
• Limited Arrivals: Sathi paddy arrivals remain restricted in Indian mandis, keeping supply in check.
• Crop Progress: Delayed or limited arrivals of new crop continue across parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
• International Competition: Vietnam and Southeast Asian origins see steady buying as buyers diversify sources, but Indian grades remain premium.

📊 Fundamentals Comparison

• USDA latest data points to tightening global rice stocks, with 2025 carryover projected marginally lower due to strong Asian and African demand.
• India’s buffer stocks remain below average for this time of year, reflecting the impact of last year’s disrupted monsoon.
• Export policy remains a crucial driver—India’s continued focus on premium export markets supports Basmati prices, while non-basmati exports face tightening regulations in some key origins.

☁️ Weather Outlook for Key Regions

• India: IMD forecasts show seasonal monsoon rains are progressing, though some eastern states report patchy precipitation. Any prolonged deficit may hamper main Kharif crop yields.
• Vietnam: Weather remains favorable with timely showers supporting crop health, but close monitoring is advised as peak typhoon season approaches.
• Thailand: Adequate soil moisture; minor heatwaves expected but not critical at this stage. Exports steady with no significant crop stress.

Weather risks, including potential rainfall deficits in Northern India, could limit new arrivals and further underpin prices—in contrast to relatively benign conditions in Southeast Asia.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. (Mln t)	2024/25 Stocks (Mln t)	Major Export/Import
India	125	38	Export
Vietnam	44	6.5	Export
Thailand	20.5	5.4	Export
China	148	108	Import/Export
Philippines	13.7	2.4	Import
Africa (total)	21	1.2	Import

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain long positions in Indian premium and Basmati grades amid export strength and supply tightness.
• Monitor arrivals in North India; further delays or weather-related disruptions may prompt another price leg higher.
• Consider spot buys or forward contracts for fine rice varieties, as Asian demand is expected to remain elevated through the season.
• Stay vigilant for any policy changes, particularly export restrictions from India or Vietnam.
• Watch weather patterns in India and upcoming Southeast Asian harvests for cues on next market moves.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Product	Current (EUR/kg)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Sentiment
New Delhi (Basmati/1718)	1.06	1.07	1.07	1.08	Bullish
New Delhi (PR11)	0.57	0.57	0.57	0.58	Stable
Hanoi (Jasmine)	0.63	0.63	0.64	0.65	Firm