The global rice market is at a critical juncture, shaped by dynamic trade relations, regional production surges, and evolving consumer demand. Recent developments, particularly the announcement of deeper trade ties between Indonesia and Cambodia, signal a potential reshaping of Southeast Asia’s rice supply chains. Indonesia—Southeast Asia’s most populous country—continues to balance being a major rice producer with persistent surges in domestic demand that keep import requirements high. Despite holding a robust reserve exceeding 3.7 million tonnes and a forecasted bumper crop approaching 34.6 million tonnes in 2024/2025, Indonesia’s strategic rice imports remain vital. Cambodia, striving to export one million tonnes by 2025, seeks to leverage these market opportunities but faces hurdles in logistics and price competition, especially against exports from Vietnam and Thailand. The recently inked agreement for Cambodia to supply 250,000 tonnes annually reflects Indonesia’s multi-sourcing approach while underlining the importance of quality and cost competitiveness. Asia’s monsoon patterns, ongoing shipping disruptions, and shifting global food policies add further uncertainty to market sentiment. As we head into the peak harvest and trade season, the interplay of price trends, crop conditions, trade agreements, and weather anomalies will set the tone for rice’s global trade flows in the quarters ahead.
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FOB 0.70 €/kg
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📈 Latest Rice Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Golden, Sella | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.06 | -0.93 | Bearish |
| All Steam, PR11 | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.55 | -1.79 | Bearish |
| All Isteam, Sharbati | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.70 | -1.41 | Bearish |
| All Steam, 1121 Steam | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.97 | -1.02 | Bearish |
| White Sella, 1121 Creamy | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 0.87 | -1.14 | Bearish |
| White, Basmati (Organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 1.93 | -0.52 | Stable/Bearish |
| Long White 5% | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 0.60 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Indonesia: Domestic production for 2024/25 is on track for a record ~34.6 million tonnes, yet surging consumption requires ongoing imports, targeting partners like Cambodia, Vietnam, and Thailand.
- Cambodia: Ambitious goal to export 1 million tonnes by 2025. An agreement for 250,000 tonnes per year to Indonesia anchors demand but faces logistical cost challenges.
- Vietnam & Thailand: Continue to dominate regional exports with competitive pricing, putting pressure on other exporters.
- India: Maintains status as a key global supplier. Indian prices are marginally down on the week, reflecting subdued international demand amid larger Asian inventories.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Indonesia’s rice stocks: Largest in ASEAN, now over 3.7 million tonnes. Recent policy moves support gradual import increases from regional partners.
- Strategic Indonesia-Cambodia agreement: A milestone for bilateral trade, giving Cambodian exporters a foothold but underscoring the need for improved shipping logistics.
- Price dynamics: High competition from Vietnamese and Thai rice due to pricing and quality. Logistics and transportation costs are eroding Cambodia’s competitive edge.
- Speculative positions: Global traders remain cautious, with price direction moderately bearish amid anticipation for record Indonesian and Indian harvests.
- USDA & government reports: Confirm ample global stocks, limiting upward price risk in the near term despite intermittent weather risks.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Indonesia: The onset of the rainy season is progressing normally, supporting crop establishment. However, flash flooding in parts of Java could temporarily disrupt local harvesting.
- Cambodia/Vietnam/Thailand: Favorable rainfall and moderate temperatures support above-average yield prospects. Some risk of late-season typhoons could impact logistics/export schedules, but no immediate threat identified.
- India: The Southwest monsoon has arrived on time, with sufficient soil moisture reported in the major rice belts (Punjab, Haryana, West Bengal).
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (Mt) | Ending Stocks (Mt) | Export Estimate (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | 34.6 | 3.7 | 0.2 |
| Cambodia | 11.2* | 1.5* | 1.0 (target) |
| Vietnam | 29.5 | 4.2 | 7.1 |
| Thailand | 20.5 | 5.0 | 8.0 |
| India | 125.0 | 26.0 | 21.0 |
*Estimated
📆 Trading Outlook & Key Recommendations
- Short-term trend remains slightly bearish due to ample supply, competitive regional pricing, and improving weather conditions across Asia.
- Opportunities exist in long-term offtake agreements and niche rice varieties (e.g., organic, specialty), especially for quality-differentiated exporters.
- Importers should monitor logistics costs and regional weather disruptions; price dips could provide favorable entry for forward bookings.
- Exporters in Cambodia must prioritize both logistics optimization and differentiated marketing to enhance competitiveness against Vietnamese and Thai supply.
- Speculative traders: expect range-bound prices with a mild downward bias unless weather events or new trade barriers develop in the region.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Exchange | Current (USD/kg) | 3-Day Outlook | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi FOB (PR11 Steam) | 0.55 | 0.54 – 0.55 | Bearish/Stable |
| New Delhi FOB (1121 Sella) | 1.06 | 1.05 – 1.07 | Stable |
| Hanoi FOB (Long White 5%) | 0.60 | 0.60 | Stable |
| Hanoi FOB (Jasmine) | 0.62 | 0.62 | Stable |
