Rice Market Analysis July 2025: Stable Prices Amid Weather Caution and Robust Supply

Rice markets have entered a period of notable stability as of mid-July 2025, with both futures and spot prices showing minimal volatility. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rice contracts display only marginal day-over-day changes, suggesting a lack of directional momentum. Similarly, spot market prices for various rice types out of Vietnam and India have held steady over the past week, highlighting well-balanced export flows and resilient supply chains.

Global rice production has largely recovered from earlier weather scares, especially in Southeast Asia, where favourable late-monsoon rainfall supported yield prospects. International demand remains consistent, buoyed by ongoing import activities from major buyers such as the Philippines, China, and several African nations. However, traders are closely monitoring the critical late-stage crop development in key regions, as pockets of adverse weather—particularly excessive heat in northern India and sporadic flooding in central Vietnam—could add a risk premium to prices moving forward.

With global stocks at comfortable levels and few surprises reported in the recent USDA and FAO market updates, most participants anticipate sideways movement in the near term, though weather-induced uncertainty cannot be discounted. Positioning has become more tactical, with buyers preferring hand-to-mouth procurement. For those navigating the current market landscape, vigilance on weather trends and potential changes in export policies will be essential.

📈 Rice Prices Overview

CBOT Rice Futures (US-Cent/cwt)

Contract	Last Price	Change	% Change	Sentiment
Sep 25	12.40	+0.04	+0.28%	Neutral
Nov 25	12.69	+0.06	+0.44%	Neutral
Jan 26	12.92	-0.15	-1.19%	Cautious
Mar 26	13.12	-0.17	-1.24%	Cautious
May 26	13.34	-0.18	-1.33%	Softening

 

Spot Export Prices (FOB, in EUR/tonne)

Type	Origin	Current	Prev. Price	Weekly Change
Red	VN	0.89	0.89	0%
Paper Dried	VN	1.95	1.95	0%
Long White 5%	VN	0.60	0.60	0%
Jasmine	VN	0.62	0.62	0%
Japonica	VN	0.72	0.72	0%
Homali	VN	0.77	0.77	0%
White Glutinous	VN	0.70	0.70	0%
Calrose	VN	0.80	0.80	0%
Black	VN	1.19	1.19	0%
All Golden, Sella	IN	1.06	1.05	+0.95%
White, Non Basmati (Organic)	IN	1.62	1.61	+0.62%
White, Basmati (Organic)	IN	1.92	1.91	+0.52%

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• No major shifts in global rice inventories; global stocks remain at five-year average levels.
• USDA’s July report reiterates strong output in Vietnam and India, with minor downward adjustments for Thailand due to dry pockets near the Mekong.
• India’s export restrictions remain partially in place, but ample Vietnamese and Pakistani supplies fill gaps.
• Import demand from Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and the Philippines stays robust.
• Speculative positioning is muted—the market is largely in commercial hands with risk-averse buying strategies.

📊 Fundamentals and Global Comparison

Country	Production (2024/25 est., million t)	Stocks (end 2024/25, million t)	Comments
India	128.0	34.0	Stable; some weather risk ahead of harvest
Vietnam	44.5	7.1	Favorable weather, good export pace
Thailand	30.1	5.2	Dryness offset by recent rains
China	147.6	60.2	Stable output, stocks drawdown continues

☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Vietnam: Central regions experienced some flooding, largely under control. Southern delta moisture is ideal for late growth stages.
• India: Northern states reporting above-normal temperatures, potentially stressing late-sown rice—close monitoring needed.
• Thailand/MEKONG: Some localised dryness, but recent rainfall improved crop prospects.
• West Africa: Seasonal monsoon off to a solid start, supportive for local rice fields.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect range-bound pricing over the next seven days, barring sudden weather shifts or new export restrictions from India.
• End-users are advised to pursue regular short-covering rather than aggressive forward buying.
• Exporters should watch demand from Africa and the Middle East for any pickup signals.
• Monitor Indian government policy in case of potential further rice export easing or tightening.
• Stay alert to weather news from northern India and central Vietnam, as these could move markets quickly.

🔎 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market	Direction	Expected Range
CBOT Sep 25	Stable	12.35–12.50 US-Cent/cwt
Vietnam 5% Broken FOB	Stable	0.59–0.61 EUR/kg
India 1121 Steam FOB	Slightly Up	0.97–1.00 EUR/kg