Rice Market Analysis: Stable Prices Amid Seasonal Supply Shifts and Weather Uncertainty

The global rice market continues to demonstrate remarkable stability as the first half of 2025 draws to a close. Key benchmarks on the CBOT reflected relatively minor day-to-day changes, and the physical export market saw FOB prices for Vietnamese and Indian origins holding steady. This resilience is noteworthy given ongoing concerns about weather volatility in major producing regions and geopolitically sensitive export policies that could tighten international stocks at short notice. Producer inventories and early feedback from key growing areas signal ample volumes for immediate demand, while traders remain focused on the 2025/26 planting prospects and the impact of the northern hemisphere monsoon season.

With firm prices and a calm market backdrop, buyers and sellers are nonetheless alert to potential upside risk if adverse weather or restrictive export measures emerge. This equilibrium may prove fragile, as seasonal monsoon uncertainty and speculative activity could quickly shift sentiment. Today’s data highlight the importance of weather and policy developments, especially with India’s upcoming harvest and Vietnam’s strategic shipments shaping short-term price direction.

📈 Prices

Contract	Last (US-Cent/cwt)	Change	% Change	Open Interest	Market Sentiment
Jul 25	13.05	+0.01	+0.08%	586	Neutral to slightly bullish
Sep 25	13.43	+0.05	+0.37%	7695	Moderately bullish
Nov 25	13.65	-0.15	-1.12%	395	Corrective, price consolidation
Jan 26	13.90	+0.05	+0.36%	33	Stable, waiting weather signals

 

🌏 Physical Market Prices (FOB, updated 21.06.2025)

Type	Origin	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous
Red	Vietnam	Hanoi	0.91	0.91
Paper dried	Vietnam	Hanoi	1.99	1.99
Long, white, 5%	Vietnam	Hanoi	0.62	0.62

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global rice stocks remain above the 5-year average, with strong inventory positions in key exporters (India, Vietnam, Thailand).
• Vietnam’s exports continue at a brisk pace, benefiting from competitive pricing and stable demand from Southeast Asia and Africa.
• India’s 2025 output is subject to the evolving monsoon, but recent government statements suggest export policy stability for now.
• Chinese and West African import demand remains robust, with little change expected for Q3 2025.

📊 Fundamentals

• CBOT open interest for key contracts is steady, indicating a balanced hedging landscape and a lack of aggressive speculative activity so far.
• USDA’s recent crop progress reports indicate timely planting and generally good crop conditions in the US South, but market players are watching for Southeast Asian weather swings that could change the outlook fast.
• Global shipping rates remain relatively stable, keeping FOB quotations competitive.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: Monsoon onset has been timely, but forecasts warn of patchy rainfall zones in July–August. Localised dryness could curb output in select northern districts if conditions persist.
• Vietnam: Consistent rains this month have supported crop development in the Mekong Delta. Flood risk is low, but an above-average rainfall pattern could delay harvest slightly in August.
• Thailand: Wetter conditions than average forecast for July; mostly positive for rice, though potential for waterlogging in lowlands exists.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (m t)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (m t)	Year-on-Year Trend
India	127	34	Flat
Vietnam	44	6	+2%
Thailand	30	6	+1%
China	148	94	-1%
Nigeria	9	2	+4%

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Market sentiment is neutral–bullish for the near term, with weather developments in India and Vietnam as the critical watchpoints.
• End users and importers should lock in coverage for Q3-Q4 2025, as volatility could increase if monsoon conditions deteriorate.
• Speculators advised to monitor CBOT open interest shifts for early signs of directional breakout.
• Exporters: Consider forward sales with optionality, given the low current volatility and the risk of sudden policy moves in major exporting countries.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• CBOT Nearby Contract: 13.00–13.20 US-Cent/cwt, mild upward bias if weather risks materialise.
• Vietnam Long Grain FOB: Steady at 0.62–0.63 EUR/kg.
• India Parboiled FOB: Stable at 0.91–1.00 EUR/kg, but upper end possible on bullish news.