Rice Market Outlook June 2025: Prices Remain Firm Amid Steady Global Trade

The global rice market in June 2025 continues to send strong signals: with prices showing firm support and resilient FOB rates, traders and producers alike are navigating a landscape influenced by stable demand, robust Asian production, and modest movement in international benchmarks. On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), rice futures kept a narrow range, indicating a phase of market consolidation after previous months’ volatility. At the same time, FOB prices for key Indian and Vietnamese grades edged slightly higher, a reflection of active demand and ongoing logistical challenges in Asia.

Recent USDA reports point to solid inventory levels across main exporting countries, though concern persists about delayed plantings in some Southeast Asian regions amid erratic rainfall. In India and Vietnam, weather remains a watchpoint, but crop prospects are largely holding up, underpinned by favourable growing conditions in most rice belts. The global trade community remains attentive to Southeast Asia’s coming harvest and policy changes, as governments weigh stock management and export decisions.

Sentiment among market participants is neutral-to-slightly-bullish, with forward contracts seeing gradual appreciation. Importers are, for now, locking in deals for delivery into late 2025, while exporters are benefitting from persistent demand in Africa and the Middle East. Given the interplay of supply confidence and localized weather risks, the rice market is poised for continued stability, with measured upside momentum possible if weather or policy developments turn adverse in the months ahead.

📈 Prices

Contract	Last (US-Cent/cwt)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Jul 25	13.56	0.00%	Neutral
Sep 25	13.74	-0.07%	Neutral
Nov 25	13.92	+0.36%	Mildly Bullish
Jan 26	14.08	+0.36%	Mildly Bullish
Mar 26	14.21	+0.35%	Mildly Bullish
May 26	14.38	+0.35%	Mildly Bullish
Jul 26	14.55	+0.34%	Bullish

🌏 Spot & FOB Prices

Origin	Type	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change
IN (New Delhi)	all golden, sella	1.08	+0.02
IN (New Delhi)	all steam, pr11	0.57	+0.02
IN (New Delhi)	al ısteam, sharbati	0.72	+0.02
VN (Hanoi)	long, white, 5%	0.62	+0.02
VN (Hanoi)	Jasmine	0.64	0.00
VN (Hanoi)	Japonica	0.74	+0.02

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global inventories are stable; no major drawdowns reported, supported by timely South Asian harvests.
• India and Vietnam report good export flows, with only minor logistical holdups at main ports.
• Key importers (mainly in Africa and the Middle East) are active, securing forward coverage amid steady food security concerns.
• The US, China, and ASEAN bloc collectively maintain comfortable reserve levels, though Thailand faces spot drought-related stress.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: No major adjustments to area or yield forecasts; US long-grain rice area is steady, but weather in the Mississippi Delta warrants observation.
• Global Output: India: On track for 2025 Kharif cycle; Vietnam: Consistent output; Thailand: Some yield losses likely from drought but offset by government intervention.
• Speculative Positioning: Slightly positive, with managed money adding small net-long positions on CBOT Rice futures.
• Policy/Trade: Export quotas and controls unchanged among major exporters; no disruptive new restrictions noted this week.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• India: Monsoon rains have normalised in Punjab and Andhra Pradesh; early planted crops are developing well. No heatwave threats reported.
• Vietnam: Mekong Delta reports below-average rainfall for early Jun, but forecasts signal above-average precipitation for late June, supporting main crop yields.
• Thailand: Some drought in central plains, but no widespread crop risk seen unless dry spell extends into July.
• US (Delta): Weather steady but local thunderstorms have delayed some field operations; yield impact minimal so far.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Prod. (M tonnes)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (M tonnes)
India	128.0	41.0
China	147.5	109.0
Vietnam	44.0	6.2
Thailand	20.5	3.1
US	8.1	1.9
Africa (total)	20.6	2.9

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ➕ Hold or add long positions in CBOT Rice futures for contracts beyond November 2025, as the current weather and supply side are supportive.
• 🔎 Importers should secure Q4 2025 requirements, with a focus on Vietnamese grades for cost efficiency and supply reliability.
• 🇮🇳 Monitor Indian monsoon progress; early concerns have eased, but a late-season dry spell could change outlooks rapidly.
• 📦 Exporters: Consider forward selling into Africa andthe  Middle East as demand is solid and freight markets remain stable.
• ⚠️ Watch for policy changes or new export restrictions should India or Thailand face unexpected weather shocks.

🕒 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

 

Region/Exchange	Current Price	Forecast Range (3 Days)
CBOT (Jul 25)	13.56 US-Cent/cwt	13.5 – 13.6 US-Cent/cwt
India FOB (all golden, sella)	1.08 EUR/kg	1.07 – 1.09 EUR/kg
Vietnam FOB (long, white, 5%)	0.62 EUR/kg	0.61 – 0.63 EUR/kg