Rice Market Report: Export Demand Keeps Basmati Prices Firm Amidst Improved Arrivals

The rice market in India is currently experiencing a delicate balance. With the onset of clear weather in the major basmati producing states of Punjab and Haryana, both the quality and quantity of Pusa-1509 basmati paddy arrivals have notably improved. Mandis are now witnessing daily arrivals of 150,000–200,000 bags—a clear indicator that harvest conditions have normalized post-monsoon.

Importantly, this uptick in supply has not led to price erosion. Instead, steady and robust procurement by exporters, who are keen to secure volumes amid strong international demand, has maintained price firmness. Domestic rice millers have also entered the market, attracted by improved crop quality, contributing to a steady procurement pace. As a result, prices have remained stable, suggesting a well-supported market in the near term, provided that exports continue at current rates. Market participants should monitor this unique intersection of recovering supply and persistent demand, which could support a modestly bullish bias until the export pace cools or a significant supply shock emerges.

📈 Prices: Latest Rice Market Prices at Key Exchanges

Type	Origin	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
All Golden, Sella	IN	New Delhi	1.03	1.05	-0.02	Steady/Weak
All Steam, PR11	IN	New Delhi	0.54	0.56	-0.02	Steady
Al İsteam, Sharbati	IN	New Delhi	0.69	0.71	-0.02	Steady
All Steam, 1121 Steam	IN	New Delhi	0.95	0.97	-0.02	Steady
All Steam, 1509 Steam	IN	New Delhi	0.89	0.91	-0.02	Firm
White Sella, 1121 Creamy	IN	New Delhi	0.87	0.89	-0.02	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Arrivals & Quality: Punjab and Haryana mandis are reporting high daily arrivals of Pusa-1509 at 150,000–200,000 bags.
• Exporters: Export demand remains the dominant force, with active procurement holding up prices amid plentiful supply.
• Milling Demand: Millers are increasing purchases as better-quality grain hits the markets.
• Recent Prices: Punjab’s Amritsar mandi trades at ₹6,700–6,750 per quintal (approx. $805–$811/MT), Haryana at ₹5,800–6,000 (approx. $697–$721/MT), with overall Indian prices near ₹6,100 per quintal ($732/MT).
• Expectations: Market expects steady to slightly firmer prices as arrivals and export buying remain balanced.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Comparison

Country	2023/24 Production (MMT)	Stocks (MMT)	Export Share (%)
India	133	35	~40
Vietnam	43	4	15
Thailand	20	4	13
Pakistan	10	2	8

• India maintains its lead in exports but has faced intermittent trade restrictions.
• Vietnam & Thailand continue to serve price-sensitive markets in Asia and Africa.
• Inventory Levels: Global stocks remain comfortable, though exporters watch Indian policy closely for signals on availability.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Yield Outlook

• Punjab & Haryana: Dry, clear weather has improved both quantity and quality—supporting higher arrivals and strong milling demand.
• Forecast: Next week expected to remain largely dry, favoring the final stages of harvest and further arrivals.
• Potential Risks: Sudden rain could reduce quality for late-harvested fields; however, near-term weather models show low risk of significant rainfall.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Export demand is expected to persist through the coming weeks, underpinning price stability.
• Monitor arrival pace—if arrivals drop due to weather, prices could firm further.
• Miller demand may taper if export sales slow; this would put mild downward pressure on prices.
• Policy risk: Remain alert for any changes to India’s rice export policy.
• Recommended: Sellers consider firm offers, buyers should secure volumes while prices remain stable; speculative traders may hold long positions with stop-losses below recent support levels.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Product	Current (EUR/kg)	3-Day Outlook	Sentiment
India/New Delhi	All Golden, Sella	1.03	1.02 – 1.04	Stable to Firm
India/New Delhi	All Steam, 1509 Steam	0.89	0.88 – 0.91	Firm
Vietnam/Hanoi	Long, White, 5%	0.56	0.55 – 0.57	Stable