Rice Market Review June 2025: Record Stocks, Falling Prices, and Bearish Sentiment

Amidst record production and bulging inventories, the global rice market is under immense pressure, as prices linger at multi-year lows and demand remains lackluster. India’s rice exports have plummeted by nearly 60% in the first two months of the current fiscal year, a stark shift from the buying frenzy that followed the removal of export curbs in late 2024. Despite India cementing its status as the world’s top rice producer, with output exceeding 149 million tonnes, both global and regional prices are held down by an enduring oversupply. As buyers, particularly in Asia, sit on ample inventories purchased at higher prices, new trade flows have slowed considerably, impacting market sentiment and export activity everywhere—not just from India but also from key competitors. The Food Corporation of India’s record stocks and unprecedented sales into both the food and ethanol sectors have sent strong signals about India’s abundant supply, further chilling international demand. With the USDA’s rice export forecast appearing increasingly out of reach and procurement prices tumbling, market participants face a uniquely challenging outlook dominated by oversupply, soft demand, and an uncertain trading environment.

📈 Rice Prices: Key Market Quotes

Type	Origin	FOB Price (USD/kg)	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
5% Broken White	IN	0.55 (PR11)	0.56	-0.01	Bearish
Parboiled	IN	1.06 (Golden Sella)	1.07	-0.01	Bearish
Steam, 1121	IN	0.97	0.98	-0.01	Bearish
Steam, Sharbati	IN	0.70	0.71	-0.01	Bearish
White, Non-Basmati (Organic)	IN	1.62	1.63	-0.01	Bearish
White, Basmati (Organic)	IN	1.93	1.94	-0.01	Bearish
Long White 5%	VN	0.60	0.60	0.00	Stable
Jasmine	VN	0.62	0.62	0.00	Stable

Source: Latest CMBroker data, 7 June 2025

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India’s rice exports are down nearly 60% YoY in April-May 2025, with monthly shipments dropping from an average of 13 lakh tonnes to less than 5 lakh tonnes.
• Export demand: Buyers—especially in Asia—are still holding major inventories procured in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 at higher prices, further depressing new demand.
• Oversupply persistency: Global rice inventories remain high with no space to unload in some months, and competitors (including Vietnam and Thailand) report no increase in shipments.
• USDA projection: India is unlikely to touch the earlier forecast of 24 million tonnes in exports for 2025.

📊 Fundamentals

• India: Record rice production at over 149 million tonnes in 2024-25, with FCI stocks at 37.99 mt of rice and 32.26 mt unmilled paddy (equivalent to over 21 mt rice) as of June 1, 2025.
• Government actions: India has removed curbs on rice exports, sales for ethanol production ramp up at competitive prices (₹22.50/kg).
• Export price performance: FOB values for 5% broken white rice at $384/tonne and parboiled at $377/tonne—both at five-year lows; a 20% price drop since February 2025 and nearly 40% since export curbs.
• Top producers: India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India’s monsoon is progressing broadly on schedule, with sufficient rainfall over eastern and southern regions; initial sowing is above average for the Kharif season.
• Vietnam & Thailand: Weather conditions remain overall favorable, with forecasts of neutral to slightly above average precipitation during the main growing season, minimizing near-term crop risks.
• Potential impacts: Continued favorable weather could maintain or even enhance current oversupply dynamics, further depressing prices absent a demand rebound.

🌏 Global Supply & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (est., mt)	2024/25 Stocks (mt)	2024/25 Exports (proj., mt)
India	149	37.99 (FCI) + 21.61 (paddy)	<18 (falling short of 24 mt USDA proj.)
Vietnam	43	4.1	7.0
Thailand	21	2.5	7.5
Bangladesh	35	9.0	limited, mostly domestic market

📌 Key Market Drivers

• India’s record output and high government/FCI stocks exert multi-year bearish pressure on global prices.
• Slack global demand and large importer inventories, bought at higher prices, limit export opportunities even as prices fall.
• Competitor country exports (Vietnam, Thailand) have not increased despite India’s falling exports, highlighting subdued aggregate demand.
• India’s government sales and rice-for-ethanol policies signal long-term confidence in surplus supplies.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term sentiment: Continues bearish; no rebound in demand and buyers remain cautious.
• Producers: Consider locking in sales as inventories remain high and further downside price risk exists.
• Buyers: Plenty of buying opportunities with prices at multi-year lows, but monitor for possible supply-side interventions or weather shocks.
• Exporters: Increased competition on price—focus on logistics efficiency and quality differentiation.
• Speculators: Minimal upside in the near term; short-biased or neutral positioning recommended until signs of demand recovery emerge.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Market	Recent Close	3-Day Forecast	Direction
India FOB (5% Broken)	0.55 USD/kg	0.54 – 0.56 USD/kg	↔️ Slight Down
India FOB (Golden Sella, Parboiled)	1.06 USD/kg	1.05 – 1.07 USD/kg	↔️ Slight Down
Vietnam FOB (Long White 5%)	0.60 USD/kg	0.60 – 0.61 USD/kg	↔️ Stable

Stable to slightly weaker prices expected as surplus persists and demand remains slack.