Rice Market Surge: Bangladesh Calls for Imports Amid Tight South Asian Supplies

The global rice market is under renewed stress as South Asian supply tightness drives prices to multi-year highs and prompts swift policy responses. The Government of Bangladesh has issued global tenders for Seila rice imports, aiming to address surging local prices and tighten domestic food security ahead of the next consumption peak. In neighboring India, especially the states of Bihar and West Bengal, Seila rice prices have jumped by $0.60–$0.90 per quintal in the past month due to output declines and robust procurement from both state and private buyers.

Common paddy rates have climbed to $35.00 per quintal, reflecting persistent tightness across the region. With global import demand at a high and export inventories drawn down, major importers face rising costs and volatility. The intervention from Bangladesh is expected to provide some relief, though the market remains on edge as weather risks persist for late-season crops and fundamentals suggest continued fragility. Below, we examine the latest price trends, core supply and demand drivers, updated fundamentals, and a short-term outlook for traders and market stakeholders.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
All Golden, Sella	IN	New Delhi	1.05	0%	Stable
All Steam, PR11	IN	New Delhi	0.56	0%	Stable
Al Isteam, Sharbati	IN	New Delhi	0.71	0%	Stable

Note: Prices stable week-on-week, but underlying tone is firm due to local shortages.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Bangladesh floating international tenders for Seila rice import with deadline October 6, 2025 (early November delivery).
• India’s Bihar and West Bengal experiencing price surges as crop output lags amid strong procurement by millers and government stockpiling.
• Rising global demand, particularly from African and Southeast Asian buyers, is supporting world prices at elevated levels.
• Private sector competition with government agencies for local stocks is intensifying regional supply tightness.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production: Lower than average in key Indian regions (Bihar, West Bengal); late rainfall impacted crop development.
• Imports: Bangladesh’s move to import is anticipated to stabilize prices locally, but global spot availability remains limited.
• Stocks: Global rice inventories, especially of preferred varieties (Seila, Basmati), are low after a strong export year in 2024/25.
• USDA, Trade Reports: Latest USDA WASDE shows global stocks-to-use ratio trending near ten-year lows; speculative longs increasing on Asian exchanges.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India (Eastern): Monsoon season concluded with 6–8% rainfall deficit in Bihar and West Bengal. Moisture stress at grain-fill stage dented yields; late-season showers brought some relief but not enough for full recovery.
• Bangladesh: August-September saw normal-to-below-normal rainfall; soil moisture recovery is underway, helping replanting for the next crop cycle.
• Vietnam & Thailand: Generally favorable weather for main crop harvest, though local flooding concerns exist in the Mekong Delta. Minimal impact on export flows so far.

🌐 Global Comparison Table

Country	2024/25 Prod. (MMT)	Stocks (MMT)	Import/Export Status
India	125.0	30.5	Major Exporter
Vietnam	43.5	6.0	Major Exporter
Thailand	32.0	5.5	Major Exporter
Bangladesh	36.7	2.9	Major Importer
China	206.0	109.3	Large Net Importer
Nigeria	8.0	0.4	Importer

Global inventories remain tight, especially in Asia.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

• India (FOB New Delhi): Prices expected to remain firm, slight upward bias (+0.5%) as buyers secure stocks pre-harvest.
• Vietnam (FOB Hanoi): Prices stable with neutral bias amid adequate new crop flow.
• Bangladesh (spot, ex-import): Anticipated stabilization, minor pullback after arrival of tendered cargoes.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Importers: Consider forward booking for Q4 and early 2026 to hedge against short-term volatility.
• Exporters: Prioritize supply contracts with Bangladesh and African buyers; maintain flexible terms for late-season crop risks.
• Traders: Monitor tender results and weather updates; speculative buying may persist if rainfall disappointments extend into October.
• Domestic buyers (India/Bangladesh): Focus on pipeline inventory; avoid panic buying as imports likely to cap further price spikes.