Rice Market Surges: India Shatters Export Records as Global Demand Remains Robust

The global rice market is experiencing an unprecedented transformation, driven primarily by India’s extraordinary export surge and record-setting domestic production. For the first time in history, India’s rice exports have crossed the 12.74 billion USD threshold in 2024–25, capturing over 30% of global market share and setting the country apart as the undisputed leader in rice exports worldwide. This stellar performance comes amid steadily increasing global demand, expanded production capacity, and supportive government policy, all while competitors like Thailand and Vietnam maintain moderate export shares.

With India exporting 20.2 million tonnes out of a record 149.07 million tonnes produced, oversupply continues to support export momentum and ease domestic market pressures. Weather conditions in major Asian growing regions remain favorable, with short-term forecasts indicating no major production risks on the horizon. At the same time, price stability and consistent demand from key buyers solidify India’s influence, promising continued leadership and opportunity for stakeholders throughout the value chain. For consumers and traders alike, these signals indicate a steady, well-supplied market with minimal supply shocks expected in the near future.

📈 Rice Prices

Origin	Type	FOB Location	Current Price (EUR/mt)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Vietnam	Red	Hanoi	0.89	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	Paper dried	Hanoi	1.95	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	Long, white, 5%	Hanoi	0.60	0.00	Stable
India	All steam, 1121	New Delhi	0.97	0.00	Firm
India	White, non-basmati (organic)	New Delhi	1.61	0.00	Premium
India	White, basmati (organic)	New Delhi	1.91	0.00	Premium

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Record 149.07 million tonnes production in 2024–25 (+11.25 Mt YoY), exports at 20.2 million tonnes. Domestic consumption at ~110 Mt, surplus of ~39 Mt supports strong export flows.
• Global Share: India leads with 30%; Thailand (16%), Vietnam (14%), Pakistan (10.7%), USA (6%), Cambodia (5%). China remains the largest producer but with only 2% export share.
• Key Buyers: Benin, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, Bangladesh (non-basmati); Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, UAE, Yemen (basmati).
• Government Policy: No immediate export restrictions from India, ensuring market stability and supply continuity.

📊 Fundamentals

• Export Revenue: 12.74 billion USD in 2024–25; a 240 million USD YoY growth from 1,038.49 crore USD (2023–24).
• Non-basmati vs. Basmati: Non-basmati: 667.57 million USD; Basmati: 605.07 million USD in export revenue.
• Global Inventories: Global stocks remain comfortable due to bumper harvests in India and steady exports from SE Asia.
• Speculative Positioning: Minimal speculative pressure, with most markets reporting balanced commercial activity due to ample physical supply.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• South & Southeast Asia: Current Monsoon conditions in India, Thailand, and Vietnam are broadly favorable, maintaining high soil moisture levels with no major flooding or drought concerns reported.
• Short-Term Forecast: India and Vietnam forecast to receive near-average rainfall in the coming week. Thailand may see scattered showers, beneficial for late planting phases.
• Yield Impact: No immediate weather-driven yield risks seen; production is likely to meet or exceed earlier estimates for 2024–25.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024–25 Output (Mt)	Export Share (%)
India	149.1	30+
China	212.0*	2*
Thailand	32.0*	16
Vietnam	28.0*	14
Pakistan	9.5*	10.7
USA	7.2*	6

*indicates approximate/last reported values

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• India’s robust production and policy stability keep the global rice market well supplied and less volatile.
• Buyers can lock in current prices, as short-term weather risks and policy interventions are minimal.
• Exporters should maximize shipments before possible new policy announcements ahead of India’s new harvest cycle.
• Keep monitoring Southeast Asian weather and potential logistics bottlenecks as the monsoon progresses.
• Asia-centric demand remains strong—diversification into African and Middle Eastern markets continues to pay dividends.

📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges/Origins)

Origin	Type	Price Today (EUR/mt)	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
Vietnam	Long, white, 5%	0.60	0.60	0.60	0.60
India	All steam, 1121	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97
India	White, basmati (organic)	1.91	1.91	1.91	1.91