Rice Market Update: Global Pressure Deepens as Philippines Extends Import Ban, Prices Drop to Eight-Year Lows

The rice market finds itself at a significant turning point as the Philippines, traditionally the world’s largest importer, has extended its rice import ban until April 2026, further amplifying bearish trends already visible worldwide. This move, meant to shield domestic farmers during the nation’s critical harvest period, will see minimal volumes allowed in only January 2026. By the end of September, the Philippines had already imported 3.5 million tonnes, surpassing domestic requirements by a notable margin. The impact of this policy is reverberating through global markets: benchmark Asian rice prices are now at their lowest since 2017, driven by robust Indian and Southeast Asian harvests, record global production forecasts from the FAO, and a rapid build-up of world reserves.

Analysts agree the market dynamic has sharply reversed since the 2024 panic-driven highs. The anticipation of the Philippines, which the USDA expected to import as much as 5 million tonnes in 2025/26, stepping back from large-scale purchases is weighing on supplier sentiment, particularly in top-exporting countries like India, Vietnam, and Thailand. With global rice output projected at a record 556.4 million tonnes for 2025/26, buyers and traders alike can expect a period of sustained low prices and a shift in traditional trade flows. Producers, meanwhile, are bracing for increased competition and pressure on margins as inventories swell and consumption growth softens internationally.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Change (W-o-W)	Market Sentiment
India	All Golden, Sella	1.03	0%	Bearish
India	All Steam, PR11	0.54	0%	Bearish
India	All Steam, Sharbati	0.69	0%	Bearish
India	All Steam, 1121 Steam	0.95	0%	Bearish
Vietnam	Long, White, 5%	0.56	0%	Bearish
Vietnam	Jasmine	0.58	0%	Bearish
Vietnam	Calrose	0.76	0%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Philippines Import Ban: Extended until April 2026, sharply reducing global demand for export rice in the near term.
• India’s Robust Output: Favorable monsoon and high acreage ensure strong Indian supplies, supporting the global surplus.
• Global Production: FAO projects a record output of 556.4 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season.
• Inventory Build: High closing stocks in top exporters (India, Thailand, Vietnam) put further downward pressure on prices.
• Weak Demand Growth: Softening imports by leading buyers (Philippines, China, Sub-Saharan Africa) amid higher domestic stocks and government interventions.

📊 Fundamentals

Country	2024 Output (mt)	2025/26 Forecast (mt)	2025/26 Ending Stocks (mt)
India	134.6	139.8	34.5
China	147.3	149.0	107.6
Vietnam	43.3	44.0	4.1
Thailand	29.5	30.1	5.2
Philippines	20.1	21.0	2.8

Source: FAO, USDA estimates

☁️ Weather Outlook

• India: Above-average monsoon rainfall projected for October; bodes well for Rabi sowing season.
• Vietnam & Thailand: Stable conditions with sufficient irrigation reserves. No major adverse events expected for autumn harvest.
• Philippines: Drier-than-average weather into late Q4, but adequate for the major harvest underway, supporting government focus on local procurement.

🌏 Global Trade & Inventories

• Exporters: India, Vietnam, and Thailand lead the world market, all reporting high levels of unsold stocks as of Q4 2025.
• Importers: Philippines’ retreat from the market a major bearish factor, while China’s imports are expected to be steady to slightly lower; African demand is steady but unspectacular.
• Trade Flows: Major shifts as supplies get redirected away from the Philippines toward other Asian and African buyers, with competitive pricing expected to persist.

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Persistent oversupply and high carryover stocks point to continued weak prices through Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
• Sellers should consider forward contracting to secure margins and minimize inventory risk.
• Importers are advised to maintain hand-to-mouth buying strategies and avoid stockpiling, awaiting further price declines.
• Watch for weather volatility in South Asia and Southeast Asia which could quickly alter the supply outlook.
• Monitor the next USDA and FAO forecasts closely for potential revisions to acreage or yield estimates.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Type	Today (EUR/kg)	Day 2	Day 3
India	All Golden, Sella	1.03	1.02	1.02
Vietnam	Long, White, 5%	0.56	0.55	0.55
India	All Steam, PR11	0.54	0.54	0.53

Prices projected to move lower as ample supply dominates. Minor downward trend likely unless a weather shock emerges.