The European rye market is facing a striking development this season: Ukraine, traditionally a modest exporter of rye, has not reported any outbound shipments as of July 11, 2025 for the 2025/26 marketing year. This is a departure from even the limited 200 tons (0.2 thousand tons) exported over the same period last year. As other grains like wheat and corn continue to move briskly out of Black Sea ports, rye’s absence hints at deeper fundamental changes.
Whether driven by domestic shortages, lower output, or a strategic reallocation to internal needs, Ukraine’s rye trade freeze is already casting ripples across Eastern European balances. End-users and traders are now on alert: any climb in domestic Ukrainian consumption or a thinner harvest could tighten availability across the region, especially given the soft demand and stagnant prices seen globally. Market watchers should monitor harvest data, weather impacts, and potential shifts in local policy or trade to anticipate further moves in this thinly traded but crucial feed and food grain market.
📈 Prices
| Exchange/Location |
Contract/Term |
Closing Price |
Weekly Change |
Market Sentiment |
| Odesa, Ukraine (FOB) |
Spot |
€0.12/kg |
0% |
Stable – Flat trading, no new exports |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Ukrainian Exports: Zero rye exported as of July 11, 2025, versus 0.2 thousand tons by this time last year.
- Comparison: Wheat (140,000 tons), Corn (251,000 tons) shipped from Ukraine in early 2025/26.
- Drivers: Possible production decline, domestic consumption prioritization, and/or weak external demand.
- EU Trends: Mild oversupply in Western Europe; prices generally subdued but could react rapidly if Black Sea supplies tighten further.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA Reports: Prelim 2025/26 projections show flat-to-lower European rye production, with modestly lower stocks.
- Speculative Positioning: Funds remain neutral or absent given low liquidity, but any shift in Ukraine/EU balance could trigger volatility.
- Global Stocks:
- Major Exporters (2024/25 est): EU ~6.7 MMT, Russia ~2.5 MMT, Ukraine <1 MMT (dropping in 2025/26)
- Major Importers: China, U.S., North Africa (select uses), demand stable to lower
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Ukraine: Current weather conditions: Moderate-to-wet June and July, occasional heatwaves. Forecast for next 2 weeks: Slightly above-average temperatures, localized dryness in central/northern oblasts.
- Central Europe: Mostly favorable for winter cereals; scattered showers may briefly impact harvest pace but not quality.
- Yield Impact: No major adverse effect expected for established rye fields, but early reports suggest lower-than-average yields in key Ukrainian regions.
🌍 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country/Region |
2024/25 Output (MMT) |
2025/26 Outlook |
2025/26 Ending Stocks (Est.) |
| EU |
6.7 |
Stable/Down |
Moderate |
| Russia |
2.5 |
Stable |
High |
| Ukraine |
<1.0 |
Sharp Decline |
Low/Declining |
📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor Ukrainian weather and government commentary closely for any changes to export policy and harvest outlooks.
- Domestic/end users: Consider long hedges or early booking for autumn requirements; upside risk in case Ukrainian stocks tighten further.
- Traders/exporters: Stay cautious—liquidity thin; any surprise supply announcement from Ukraine or the EU could swiftly move prices.
- EU buyers: Remain alert for Black Sea trade resumption or potential Russian competition in Q4.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast: Rye (FOB Odesa)
| Date |
Price (EUR/kg) |
Trend |
| 2025-07-12 |
0.12 |
Stable |
| 2025-07-13 |
0.12 |
Stable |
| 2025-07-14 |
0.12 |
Stable/Watch for new harvest data |
