Agricultural Prospects and Production Estimates
Despite the stable sowing area of Rabi corn at approximately 2.3 million hectares nationally, some regions are experiencing moisture shortages. However, the overall condition of the corn crop remains satisfactory. The official production target for the 2023-24 Rabi season is set at 9.7 million tonnes, with actual production anticipated to fall between 9.2 to 9.5 million tonnes, subject to future weather conditions.
Shifts in Consumption and Price Trends
The continuous rise in domestic demand and consumption has led to an increase in corn prices. Initially utilized primarily in the starch manufacturing industry, corn is now also being increasingly used for ethanol production due to regulatory shifts allowing limited sugarcane usage. This change, coupled with weakened export performance, suggests that corn imports might be necessary to meet ethanol blending targets.
Seasonal Production and Market Influences
While most corn production occurs during the Kharif season, Rabi season also sees significant output, especially in states like Bihar. The aftermath of the hot and dry weather has impacted Kharif crop yields, contributing to increased domestic demand and potentially higher future prices. This rising demand encompasses animal feed, poultry feed, starch manufacturing, and now ethanol production, potentially straining local supplies.
Pricing Patterns and Future Predictions
The recent trend shows Kharif corn entering the market, with a noticeable increase in prices due to various factors, including the sell-off by farmers and decreased purchasing by industries. Trade analysts anticipate further price increases, suggesting a potential rise of INR 0,024-0,036 per kg shortly. Price fluctuations have also been observed in major producing areas, impacting corn exports and altering trading dynamics in different regions, including Bihar and northern states.