The global sesame market is at a pivotal moment, influenced by dynamic shifts in supply and demand across key regions. China’s increasing appetite for imports—driven by poor domestic harvests caused by erratic weather—has become the central force in shaping pricing and trade flows into late 2025. Africa’s leading producers, Nigeria and Chad, have held or grown their output, while Brazil has stepped boldly onto the world stage with record crop sizes and major deals. India, traditionally a key supplier, faces yield uncertainties due to excessive monsoon rains, potentially tightening regional balances. This complex interplay is fostering a supply-driven market, where rapid adjustments in shipment volumes, weather variability, and new trade linkages are expected to underpin volatility and opportunity as the year draws to a close.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Sesame seeds
hulled
99,95%
FCA 1.60 €/kg
(from DE)
Sesame seeds
hulled
99.90%
FOB 1.95 €/kg
(from IN)
Sesame seeds
hulled, EU-Grade
99.98%
FOB 2.05 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Type & Grade | Purity | Location | Delivery | Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad | Hulled | 99.95% | Berlin, DE | FCA | 1.64 | -0.01 | Stable/Softening |
| India | Hulled | 99.90% | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 1.96 | +0.02 | Firm |
| India | Hulled, EU-Grade | 99.98% | New Delhi, IN | FOB | 2.06 | +0.02 | Strengthening |
| Egypt | Natural, Golden | 99.5% | Kairo, EG | FOB | 2.32 | 0.00 | Stable |
*Prices as of late September/early October 2025; offer links available for key lots.
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- China: Domestic sesame production damaged by drought and subsequent harvest rains. 2025 output below 300,000 tonnes; Jan–Jul imports reached 775,000 tonnes (+25% y/y), led by Nigerian supply.
- Nigeria & Chad: Nigeria’s crop steady at 360,000 tonnes; Chad’s expands to 255,000 tonnes, driven by eastern region growth. Both expected to peak shipments between November–January (Nigeria) and early 2026 (Chad).
- Ivory Coast: Output climbing above 20,000 tonnes, with government-backed efficiency and regulatory reforms.
- Brazil: Unprecedented output at 350,000 tonnes in 2025. Over 120,000 tonnes sold to China, 40,000 t to India—China’s diversification into Brazil is a major trend.
- India: Sowing reduced to 1.04m ha (slightly below 2024). Excessive rains cause waterlogging; likely lower yields. Arrivals start mid-October, weighing on regional availability.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Global Stocks
| Country | 2025 Output (est, 000t) | 2024 Output (000t) | Exports (peak, period) | Notable Trends |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | <300 | ~340 | Import: 775 (Jan–Jul) | Import surge; drought/recovery risk |
| Nigeria | 360 | 360 | Peak: Nov–Jan | Stable, leading supplier to China |
| Chad | 255 | 220 | Peak: Early 2026 | Expansion in east, white varieties |
| Brazil | 350 | ~270 | China, India, Turkey | Breakthrough as major supplier |
| India | n.a. | n.a. | Mid-Oct onward | Yield/quality concerns |
| Ivory Coast | >20 | n.a. | Late 2025 exports | Productivity drive ongoing |
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Regions
- China: Rain forecasts remain above seasonal norms for Yangtze valley harvest areas—potential for post-harvest damage persists. Drought in north abates, but soil reserves still low.
- Nigeria/West Africa: Typical late wet season transition, overall favorable but some risk of late rains impacting harvest logistics in east and central Nigeria.
- Chad: Conditions mostly optimal; eastern expansion aided by regular rains, though isolated flood risk in low-lying areas into October.
- Brazil: Northeast growing regions remain drier than average, but conditions support timely harvests; improved yields expected in new production zones.
- India: Scattered heavy showers subside; drier, warmer weather accelerates harvesting, but prior waterlogging seen hurting quality/yield especially in Gujarat, West Bengal.
⏳ Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 💡 Buyers: Secure coverage for Q4, especially from Africa and Brazil, as Indian crop arrivals may disappoint on quality and volume.
- 📉 Sellers: African suppliers should maximize exports during Northern Hemisphere winter as China’s demand remains robust and Indian outturn may lag.
- ⚖️ Traders: Watch Brazil’s export pace and China’s October–December buying—any import slowdown could hit prices sharply.
- 📊 All participants: Monitor weather in Indian and Chinese harvest areas; adverse conditions could spark late-season volatility. New deals between China and Brazil warrant close attention to shifting flows.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast
| Market/Origin | Current Price (€/kg) | Forecast Range (€/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chad, Berlin FCA | 1.64 | 1.63–1.65 | Soft/Stable |
| India, New Delhi FOB | 1.96 | 1.95–1.99 | Firm/Upward if yield disappoints |
| India, EU-Grade FOB | 2.06 | 2.05–2.09 | Strengthening |
| Egypt, Kairo FOB | 2.32 | 2.32–2.34 | Stable |