Market Analysis and Price Forecasts
Sandeep Bhura’s market insights paint a picture of impending changes in sesame prices. White sesame prices are poised for a reduction of USD 0.06 per kilogram, while black sesame prices are expected to fluctuate between USD 2.22 and USD 2.40. Delving into India’s agricultural landscape, official data indicate a nationwide surge in sesame cultivation. However, upon closer inspection, empirical observations reveal localized reductions in sowing activity. The projected sesame crop for the Kharif season is estimated at a range of 1.70 to 1.75 million metric tonnes, spanning several states.
Imports and Domestic Impact
Brazil and Nigeria Pour Sesame Seeds into India’s Market
The import scene is set to take centre stage, with an impending influx of sesame seeds, predominantly originating from Brazil and Nigeria. This influx is poised to inundate the Indian market in the coming months, potentially precipitating liquidity challenges for local processing facilities. South India, in particular, presents a contrasting narrative. The region has witnessed a precipitous decline in white sesame production over recent years, diverging significantly from the robust demand for Bengal sesame.
International Trade and Competing Nations
Indian Sesame Competes Amidst Fierce Rivals
In the international trade arena, the export outlook for Indian sesame is facing turbulence. There’s a prospective contraction of 10 to 15 percent in exports, driven by heightened competition from Pakistan, Nigeria, and Türkiye. Of note, China’s subdued appetite for sesame persists, with a stockpile of 0.1 million metric tonnes languishing at Chinese ports, trailing historical averages.
Meanwhile, within Pakistan, an extraordinary sesame harvest this year has exerted considerable downward pressure on prices, intensifying competition with Indian sesame producers. Across the African continent, nations like Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Togo are poised to play pivotal roles in shaping the sesame market.
Regional Challenges and Varied Demands
Sudan, Ethiopia, and the Changing Landscape of Black Sesame
Zooming in on specific challenges, Sudan’s sesame exports are anticipated to plummet by a substantial 30 percent due to internal strife, which may inadvertently favour Pakistan. Export operations in Sudan face formidable hurdles, given the inherent vulnerability of banking and port facilities to unforeseen closures.
In Ethiopia, the export of sesame is projected to undergo a sharp contraction of one to one and a half lakh metric tonnes due to the escalating scourge of terrorist activities in the region. Brazil, on the other hand, conservatively retains approximately 10 percent of its sesame stockpile.
Lastly, within the realm of black sesame, an unexpected surplus of 20k metric tonnes has been discovered at a Chinese port. China’s waning interest in black sesame, coupled with the imminent arrival of Burma’s substantial 0.2 million metric tonnes black sesame crop in October, underlines the existing languor within the international market for this variety. It’s worth noting that black sesame production in India has been on a declining trajectory over the past three agricultural seasons.
In conclusion, the sesame market presents a complex interplay of price fluctuations, international competition, and regional challenges that demand careful attention from both producers and traders.
Import/Export Statistics
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