Sesame Market Faces Tight Supply, Volatile Prices, and Shifting Trade Flows in September 2025

The global sesame market is at a crossroads in September 2025, balancing between tight origin supplies, shifting demand, and unpredictable logistics. Major producers such as India, Sudan, and Pakistan are grappling with climatic and policy challenges, while top consumer China continues to rely heavily on imports to bridge its persistent production deficit. Commodity flows are being recharted, with trade tenders and new agricultural partnerships reshaping market dynamics. African output—especially from Sudan and Nigeria—is under pressure from weather disruptions and conflict, while India is seeing a surge in both export volume and domestic usage on the back of supportive tax reforms.

Prices remain soft in Asian origins despite the supply tightness, reflecting larger stockpiles in China and the anticipation of upcoming harvests. Steep financing costs, logistical snags, and evolving buyer preferences keep volatility high. As we await clearer supply signals from forthcoming harvests, sesame market participants should brace for continued price fluctuations heading into late 2025.

📈 Prices

Type	Purity	Origin	Location	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1-Week Change	Update Date	Link
Hulled	99.90%	IN	New Delhi	1.94	-0.02	2025-09-19	Link
Hulled, EU-Grade	99.98%	IN	New Delhi	2.04	-0.02	2025-09-19	Link
Hulled, EU-Grade	99.97%	IN	New Delhi	2.01	-0.02	2025-09-19	Link
Natural, Golden	99.5%	EG	Kairo	2.32	-0.04	2025-09-19	Link
Hulled	99.95%	TD	Berlin	1.66	-0.01	2025-09-16	Link

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China remains the dominant global importer, with 1.2 MMT annual need and port stocks at 342,798 MT, signing new deals to boost local production but still primarily reliant on imports.
• India exported 234,776 MT (Nov–July) at USD 1,722/MT and saw a 26% YoY volume increase (Jan–Aug), but export prices dropped by 21% amid higher Indian and Chinese stock levels.
• South Korea’s recent state tender saw procurement from Pakistan (6,540 MT), India (2,200 MT), and others at USD 1,290–1,464/MT, indicating stable Asian demand.
• Sudan’s production falls by 28% to 350,000–380,000 MT owing to floods/conflict, with only 280,000 MT likely for export; main buyers are Egypt/China.
• Pakistan anticipates 320,000 MT, down slightly from last year, with Sindh flooding threatening up to 50% of output.
• Nigeria produced 360,000 MT, exported 320,000 MT primarily to Asia and Türkiye, but faces logistic and financial constraints.
• India’s domestic market shows declining prices: hulled (USD 1.60–1.61/kg, -1%), white (USD 1.39/kg, -2%), black (USD 2.42/kg, -5%).

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• China’s regular imports and port stocks are key sentiment drivers; huge demand gap ensures continued buying interest despite local production initiatives.
• The South Korean tender shows consistent Northeast Asian demand at mostly firm prices, with Pakistan and India well placed as suppliers.
• Indian GST cut on sesame-based products from 18% to 5% is likely to boost domestic demand and partially offset weaker export prices.
• Sudan and Pakistan’s weather-related crop damage supports expectations of tighter supplies in Q4 2025, particularly if African origins fail to recover output soon.
• Nigeria’s exports remain robust, but high interest rates and shipping gridlocks cast doubt over its ability to maintain growth.
• Large Chinese inventories may exert downward pressure on prices in the short run.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Sudan: Excessive rainfall and ongoing conflict are hampering harvests, and further precipitation in main growing areas could delay exports into Q4.
• Pakistan (Sindh): Lingering flood risk is likely to persist in low-lying production areas, threatening up to half the crop, with clearer conditions expected only by late October.
• India: Monsoon withdrawal has been smooth, but localized heavy rains in Gujarat and UP could impact harvest quality; forecast points to drier, favorable conditions ahead, aiding post-harvest drying.
• Nigeria: Normal conditions projected for main sesame-growing belts, although late rains may affect quality if harvest delays persist into October.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25* Output (MT)	Exports (MT)	Key Importers	Stocks / Comments
China	300,000	n/a	n/a	Port stocks 342,798 MT; imports ~1.2 MMT/yr
India	~700,000	234,776 (Nov–Jul)	EU, China, Korea	GST cut boosts domestic demand
Sudan	350,000–380,000	280,000 exp. (2025)	Egypt, China	Production down 28%
Pakistan	320,000	261,241 (2024)	Korea, China, EU	Flood risk in Sindh
Nigeria	360,000	320,000 (2024/25)	China, Japan, Türkiye	Port congestion, high costs
Egypt	n/a	Minor	Local	Main destination for Sudanese sesame

*2024/25 estimates; export figures from latest marketing year

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term tightness remains in African origins (Sudan, partially Nigeria) – watch closely for additional weather/flood news.
• India’s export prices are weak but may stabilize with stronger domestic demand post-GST reform and seasonal holiday usage.
• Monitor Chinese port stocks and import pace; high inventories could limit aggressive spot bidding in Q4 2025.
• Speculative buying is risky in the near-term given price volatility; hedging via physical contracts or options recommended.
• Exporters in Pakistan and Nigeria should prioritize logistics and quality management to maintain competitive access, especially with rising competition from Latin America.
• Forward contracts with established buyers in Korea, the EU, and China are advisable for origins facing production or shipping disruption.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges/FOB)

Location	Type	Expected Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
New Delhi (IN)	Hulled, 99.98% (EU-grade)	2.01 – 2.05	Sideways / Mildly Firm
Kairo (EG)	Natural, Golden	2.30 – 2.36	Firm / Tight Supply
Berlin (DE)	Hulled, 99.95%	1.65 – 1.68	Soft / Steady