Sesame Market Outlook: High Inventories, Diverging Regional Trends & Firm Export Demand

The global sesame market is navigating a complex landscape shaped by elevated inventories in China, weather uncertainties in India, robust auction activity in Tanzania, and shifting international demand patterns. Recent months have witnessed importers, especially in China, taking a cautious stance amid high port stocks (over 327,000 MT in Qingdao) and relatively expensive arrivals. This “wait-and-see” approach has kept market activity subdued, even as total Chinese imports surged 15% in H1 2025. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s new crop projection of 300,000 MT plus a notable carryover coincides with a softer Chinese demand, though its value-added hulled sesame exports are strengthening footholds in Europe and the US. In India, rainfall has introduced fresh uncertainty for the key winter crop, yet summer reserves and hulling industry strength continue to underpin export stability—crucial given Europe’s steady appetite.

On the African front, Ethiopia’s crop outlook has improved with successful sowing, and export offers remain elevated. Tanzania’s auction structure continues to channel substantial volumes to market, further stabilizing regional supply dynamics. Amid softer international prices—driven by discounting from Pakistan and aggressive African offers—and a 21% drop in China’s average import price, sesame market participants face important questions about future price direction and inventory management as they prepare for new harvests.

📈 Market Prices & Sentiment

Origin	Type	Purity	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Update	Market Sentiment
IN	Hulled	99.90%	New Delhi	FOB	1.96	1.96	2025-08-23	Steady
IN	Hulled, EU-Grade	99.98%	New Delhi	FOB	2.06	2.06	2025-08-23	Firm EU Demand
IN	Hulled, EU-Grade	99.97%	New Delhi	FOB	2.03	2.03	2025-08-23	Firm EU Demand

• Pakistan (Aug–Sep shipments): USD 1,030–1,120 CNF
• Tanzania: USD 1,200–1,320 CFR
• Mozambique: USD 1,300–1,320 CFR
• Ethiopia: USD 1,390–1,420 FOB

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• China: Imports Jan–Jun 2025 up 15% y/y to 711,072 MT, but port stocks at record highs; buying remains subdued as buyers await lower offers and clearer crop outlooks.
• Pakistan: New crop estimated at 300,000 MT + 30,000 MT carryover; less Chinese demand but healthy exports to EU, Middle East, USA via hulled sesame.
• India: Weather-driven uncertainty for winter crop, though well-supplied due to summer stocks; exports to Europe are steady.
• Ethiopia: Sowing strong with promising crop prospects; export competitiveness maintained with high FOB offers.
• Tanzania: Total auction volumes at 221,448 MT, with Lindi region leading output.
• US: Jan–Jun 2025 imports rose 5% to 17,092 MT, average import price fell 16%, India retained dominant supplier role (10,000 MT+).

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• 📑 High Inventories: Especially in China—port stocks >327,000 MT—are pressuring prices and slowing import demand.
• 🌦️ Weather Risk: Indian monsoon rains inject uncertainty into upcoming winter crop; any further anomalies could spur price volatility.
• 👩‍🌾 Production Upside: Ethiopia looking at healthier crop, Pakistan stable. Tanzania’s pipeline robust post-auction.
• 📃 International Pricing: Deepening discount from Pakistan and aggressive Africa offers are rebalancing trade flows; Ethiopian offers at premium.
• 📈 Speculative Activity: Cautious amid uncertainty; speculative buyers in China holding back.

🌤️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India: Recent rains in key sesame producing regions (Gujarat, Rajasthan) have raised concerns about possible delays or crop damage, which could tighten supply if rainfall continues above normal.
• Ethiopia/East Africa: Sowing benefitted from favorable rainfall; current outlook implies improved yields versus last year.
• Pakistan: Mild, stable weather supports steady yield expectations for the new crop.
• Tanzania/Mozambique: Harvest season mostly completed under stable conditions—offering reliable near-term supply.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024–25 Output (est.)	Stocks/Inventory	Key Export Destinations
China	Minor (relies on imports)	>327,000 MT (Qingdao)	Domestic, Japan, Southeast Asia
India	Variable (pending monsoon)	Summer stocks healthy	Europe, US, Japan, Middle East
Pakistan	300,000 MT	+30,000 MT carryover	China, EU, US, Middle East
Ethiopia	Improved vs. 2024	Fresh crop incoming	China, Israel, UAE, EU
Tanzania	221,448 MT	30,872 MT in warehouses	China, Japan, Israel
US (importer)	Minor (<1,000 MT)	~	India (major), Africa

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Challenging environment for immediate price gains: High inventories and cautious Chinese importers are keeping a cap on upside for now.
• Watch India’s weather: Any further monsoon disruption could quickly tighten global supply and trigger bullish momentum.
• Value-added & hulled segment remains resilient: Indian and Pakistani exporters should prioritize quality to target EU/US market premiums.
• Short-term buyers: Monitor African (Ethiopia, Tanzania) and Pakistani offers for short-term procurement; expect continued competition among exporters.
• Inventories in China: Any sustained drawdown or policy shift could spark renewed import demand and influence global prices.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Market	Today	+1 Day	+2 Days	+3 Days	Direction
India FOB (99.9% hulled)	€1.96/kg	€1.96	€1.96	€1.95	Sideways/Soft
India FOB (EU-Grade, 99.98%)	€2.06/kg	€2.06	€2.05	€2.05	Stable to Slightly Softer
Ethiopia FOB	USD 1,420/t	USD 1,420	USD 1,420	USD 1,415	Stable/Firm
Tanzania CFR China	USD 1,260/t	USD 1,260	USD 1,260	USD 1,255	Weak/Bearish
Pakistan CNF	USD 1,075/t	USD 1,075	USD 1,075	USD 1,070	Softening