The sesame market continues to capture global attention as strong demand and tightening supply drive a significant uptrend in international pricing, with the latest South Korean import auctions underscoring this dynamic. On July 25, 2025, South Korea concluded its 5th TRQ sesame bidding, awarding 15,000 tons across both state and national quotas. The auction attracted robust participation, with CFR traded prices spanning from $1,369.50 to $1,466.00 per ton, pointing to fierce competition among bidders from key origins such as Pakistan, India, and multiple African countries. The swift allocation of all quotas testifies to underlying supply anxieties—particularly as India and Pakistan, traditional powerhouses in sesame seed production, face mounting challenges from adverse weather and shifting acreage. Notably, Korean buyers demonstrated proactive strategies, diversifying procurement across Africa and Asia to guard against potential supply shocks.
Meanwhile, European spot markets reflect a stable yet elevated price environment for hulled and natural sesame, as seen in premium offers quoted in Berlin and Hamburg. Ongoing weather risks in major producing regions and uncertainty over the upcoming harvest season leave the market on edge, suggesting volatility will likely persist until Q4 2025.
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Sesame seeds
hulled
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hulled
99.90%
FOB 1.96 €/kg
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Sesame seeds
hulled, EU-Grade
99.98%
FOB 2.07 €/kg
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📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product | Origin | Location | Purity | Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sesame seeds, hulled | Chad | Berlin, DE (FCA) | 99.95% | 1.73 | 0.00 | Neutral |
| Sesame seeds, hulled | India | New Delhi, IN (FOB) | 99.90% | 1.95 | -0.01 | Stable |
| Sesame seeds, hulled EU-Grade | India | New Delhi, IN (FOB) | 99.98% | 2.06 | -0.01 | Stable/Premium |
| South Korea TRQ Auction Prices (CFR USD/ton) | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| State Quota | 1,369.50 | 1,430.00 |
| National Quota | 1,369.50 | 1,466.00 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Korea’s 2025 TRQ auctions revealed intense competition; all 15,000 tons allocated quickly with broad geographic sourcing (India, Pakistan, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Tanzania, Niger).
- Price Tiers: Winning Korean bids cluster above $1,425/t CFR, peaking at $1,466/t, while European/Indian spot prices remain elevated in local currencies, echoing international tightness.
- Major exporters (India, Pakistan) brace for weather and acreage uncertainty; India’s kharif sowing has lagged year-on-year due to erratic monsoons.
- Robust import demand in key Asian and Middle Eastern markets, alongside European recovery in baked goods and ethnic foods.
- Speculative interest has risen amid tightening stock reports and seasonal supply risk perceptions.
📊 Fundamentals: Global Production & Inventories
| Top Exporters (2024/25F) | Production (mmt) | Net Exportable |
|---|---|---|
| India | ~0.77 | High, but declining |
| Paksitan | ~0.25 | Stable |
| Ethiopia | ~0.28 | Rising exports |
| Nigeria | ~0.24 | Growing exporter |
| Sudan, Mozambique, Burkina Faso | ~0.15-0.20 each | Variable |
- Global sesame ending stocks for 2024/25 expected flat to slightly lower due to weather and increased demand.
- Korean auction winners’ reliance on African origins (Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Tanzania) evidences Asian origin constraints.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- India: Monsoon rains delayed and below average in Gujarat and Rajasthan, key for kharif sesame. Further rainfall deficits risk reducing sowing and yields, with local associations warning of up to 15% lower national output if trends continue through early August.
- Paksitan: Weather normalizing post-heatwaves, but persistent input cost inflation and power disruptions constrain production outlook.
- Africa (Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Sudan): Variable rainfall with risks of flooding in parts and drought pockets elsewhere. Early trade reports note uneven crop progress.
- Forecast: Weather volatility remains the key variable. Traders should watch next three weeks for monsoon recovery in India and harvest news from Africa.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Secure coverage for Q3-Q4 2025; consider forward contracts given auction results and potential for further supply shocks.
- Sellers: Hold stocks judiciously; evaluate opportunities to offer at premiums, especially as Indian supplies come under stress.
- Importers: Monitor African origins for additional availability; diversify if heavily reliant on South Asian supplies.
- Speculators: Remain mindful of weather headlines and official crop bulletins, as market is highly sensitive to production updates.
- Overall Sentiment: Slightly bullish near term due to fundamental tightness and forecast risk.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)
| Region/Exchange | Product | Current Price (€/kg) | Forecast Trend (3 Days) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berlin (FCA) | Hulled, TD 99.95% | 1.73 | Stable to Slightly Higher |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Hulled, IN 99.90% | 1.95 | Stable |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Hulled EU-Grade In 99.98% | 2.06 | Stable/Premium Tightness |
| South Korea (CFR) | TRQ Auction Clearing | 1,369.50–1,466.00 (USD/t) | Bullish Auction Afterglow |
Note: Forex volatility (EUR/USD) may slightly influence regional price conversions; all forecasts reflect local spot dynamics as of July 18, 2025.