The global sesame market demonstrated distinct regional dynamics this week against a backdrop of production challenges, shifting trade flows, and price realignments. Leading exporters navigated a patchwork of crop cycles and weather disruptions, with China experiencing both acreage expansion and sharp yield declines following adverse weather at critical stages. Meanwhile, Brazil’s nearly exhausted crop and firm pricing contrast with India, where early harvests and new arrivals are expected to temporarily pressure prices. Nigeria continues to consolidate its role as a stable and expanding supplier, enhanced by strategic quality initiatives and processing upgrades.
Japan’s rising imports point to robust demand, albeit at lower prices, as buyers seek value over premium. Pakistan, on the other hand, saw sluggish exports amid China’s reduced buying as it shifted sourcing to Brazil earlier in the season. Overall, the market outlook remains moderately bullish as anticipated relief from India’s harvest may be short-lived given persistent logistical hurdles and weather uncertainties across Asia and Africa. Strategic positioning by exporters in key origins and an attentive eye on weather developments will be essential as the market heads into Q4.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Sesame seeds
hulled
99,95%
FCA 1.59 €/kg
(from DE)
Sesame seeds
hulled
99.90%
FOB 1.98 €/kg
(from IN)
Sesame seeds
hulled, EU-Grade
99.98%
FOB 2.08 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Origin | Type | Purity | Delivery Terms | Location | Latest Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad (TD) ➔ Berlin (DE) | Hulled | 99.95% | FCA | Berlin | 1.59 | -0.05 | Softening |
| India (IN) | Hulled | 99.90% | FOB | New Delhi | 1.96 | 0.00 | Stable |
| India (IN) | Hulled, EU-Grade | 99.98% | FOB | New Delhi | 2.06 | 0.00 | Stable |
Note: Most Indian offers unchanged as local market awaits full-scale arrivals. Chad-origin sees a modest decline. Sentiment mixed as buyers eye new crop volumes and China’s market response.
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- China: Harvest severely impacted by drought and excessive rains; 2025 production below 300,000 tonnes. Imports robust (775,000 tonnes, up 25% YoY), led by Niger and Nigeria.
- Japan: Imports up 9% to 119,219 tonnes (Jan–Aug 2025), but prices fell 15% to $1,659/tonne. Volume growth driven by African supply, especially Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Tanzania.
- Brazil: 2025 crop largely sold out, prices remain firm, about 93,000 tonnes shipped July–August—most to China.
- India: New crop arrivals in Madhya Pradesh; Gujarat/Rajasthan to follow near/after Diwali. Seasonal price softening possible.
- Nigeria: Harvest underway; 2025–26 production estimated steady at 360,000 tonnes. Sesame drives non-oil export growth, ranking third among exports (337,825 tonnes shipped).
- Pakistan: Slow exports (10,000 tonnes in August); China inactive, but European demand for hulled sesame remains solid.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Crop & acreage forecasts: China’s expanded acreage offset by severe yield reductions. Nigeria and India stable to slightly higher output. Brazil’s supply near depletion.
- Trade flows: African origins dominate Asian markets; logistical and traceability upgrades in Nigeria boosting competitiveness. Japan’s import surge is driven by price-sensitive buyers.
- Speculative positioning: Quiet in major exchanges; physical market activity subdued entering October, particularly in China post-holiday.
- Macroeconomic factors: Global freight and weather disruptions could keep prices volatile into late 2025.
🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook
- China: Drought during growth, followed by heavy harvest rains—strongly reduced yields; continued crop stress likely in south-central regions.
- India: Monsoon withdrawal has been generally smooth; localized dryness in parts of Gujarat/Rajasthan, but arrivals remain on schedule.
- Africa (Nigeria, Niger, Burkina Faso): Favorable weather aiding harvest, though sporadic heavy rainfall could delay gathering in some states.
- Brazil: Normal seasonal cycle; no major weather issues for next cycle reported.
🌎 Production & Stocks Snapshot
| Country | 2025 Production (est.) | 2024 Production | Stock/Inventory Trends |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | <300,000 t | ~350,000 t | Drawing down, import-reliant |
| India | ~800,000 t | ~800,000 t | Fresh arrivals pending |
| Nigeria | 360,000 t | 360,000 t | Stable, exports expanding |
| Brazil | 100,000 t | 100,000 t | Stocks very tight |
| Japan (import) | 119,219 t | 109,300 t | Stocks rising, lower prices |
📌 Trading Recommendations & Outlook
- Monitor Indian crop arrivals; expected increase may ease prices temporarily.
- Watch for any further weather disruptions in India/China—could quickly reverse downward price moves.
- Strong demand from Japan and steady African output likely to support international prices through Q4 2025.
- Nigerian and Brazilian supplies remain tight; buyers seeking prompt shipment may face premiums.
- European hulled sesame demand offers export opportunity for Pakistan amid China’s inactivity.
- Consider forward contracts for Q1 2026 while prices remain near current levels in anticipation of possible supply squeezes.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- India (FOB New Delhi): Likely stable, slight downside as harvest pace picks up (€1.93–2.06/kg range for top grades).
- Chad (FCA Berlin): Mild weakening may persist as new crop trading intensifies (€1.58–1.60/kg expected).
- Egypt (FOB Kairo): Range-bound (€1.80–2.32/kg) with subdued trading activity, price floor supported by North African demand.
Related posts:
Flax Market: Surging Supply, Shifting Trade Flows, and Price Pressure Shape the Outlook
Sunflower Market Outlook: Prices Retreat on Harvest Pressure Amid Dynamic Global Supply and Weather Uncertainties
Rape Seed Market Analysis: Trade Barriers, Global Supply Shifts, and Steady Prices
Palm Oil Market Analysis: Marginal Losses Amid Supple Supplies and Weather Uncertainty
Pumpkin Seed Market: Firm but Cautious as New Crop Arrives in China
Rapeseed Market Analysis: Stability Amid Changing Weather and Global Supply Dynamics
Sunflower Market Analysis: Global Prices Ease Amid Strong Stocks and Changing Weather Patterns
Soya Market Faces Global Pressure Amid Shifting Trade Dynamics and Weather Uncertainties