The global sesame seed market is experiencing a significant shift, as reports from India – the world’s largest exporter – indicate a drastic reduction in sowing activity by nearly 78% compared to last year. This remarkable contraction has triggered a swift upward movement in spot prices, especially in critical trading hubs like Delhi and Rajkot. The combination of tight domestic supplies, sellers holding back stocks in anticipation of further gains, and robust export demand is setting the stage for a potential rally as the market heads toward major demand months during the festive season.
Weather-related concerns linger, amplifying the risk of even greater volatility in both prices and availability, as traders and food manufacturers alike scramble to secure quality stocks. Market arrivals remain low, exacerbating bullish sentiment, while international buyers face higher costs for both premium and standard grades. If current trends continue, the coming weeks could see further price escalation, with repercussions for both industrial users and exporters.
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Sesame seeds
hulled
99.90%
FOB 1.96 €/kg
(from IN)
Sesame seeds
hulled, EU-Grade
99.98%
FOB 2.06 €/kg
(from IN)
Sesame seeds
hulled, EU-Grade
99.97%
FOB 2.03 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Location | Type / Grade | Purity | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (EUR) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi | Hulled, 99.90% | 99.90% | 1.96 | -0.02 | Bullish |
| New Delhi | Hulled, EU-Grade, 99.98% | 99.98% | 2.06 | -0.02 | Bullish |
| New Delhi | Hulled, EU-Grade, 99.97% | 99.97% | 2.03 | -0.02 | Bullish |
| New Delhi | Natural, (Sortex) Organic | 99.95% | 2.26 | -0.02 | Stable/Firm |
| Rajkot | Premium Local | – | (~5.51 USD/kg ≈ 5.08 EUR/kg) | +0.12 USD | Strong demand |
| Mumbai | Imported | – | (4.38 USD/kg ≈ 4.04 EUR/kg) | +0.12 USD | Firm |
Note: USD/EUR exchange rate used ~1.085 for August 2025.
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Sowing Collapse: India’s sesame acreage down 78% y/y, the sharpest fall in a decade, due to adverse planting conditions and lower pre-monsoon rainfall.
- Low Arrivals: Delhi’s spot market reported just 400–500 bags, mostly premium quality, as growers and traders hold stocks for anticipated price gains.
- Export Demand: Remains robust as global buyers (notably the Middle East, East Asia, and Europe) seek to replenish shrinking inventories.
- Domestic Buyers: Facing fierce competition with international importers, pushing up prices for food processors and industrial users.
- Speculation: Lower availability has triggered speculative hoarding, which may intensify price swings in Q3 and Q4 if weather effects persist.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Outlook
| Country | 2023/24 Prod. (kt) | 2024/25 Est. Prod. (kt) | 2024/25 Est. Stocks (kt) | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 710 | 160 | 80 | -78 (sowing) |
| Sudan | 740 | 720 | 90 | -3 |
| Nigeria | 520 | 520 | 50 | 0 |
| Myanmar | 330 | 320 | 25 | -3 |
| Other | 480 | 450 | 60 | -6 |
| TOTAL | 2,780 | 2,170 | 305 | -22 |
- Global production is set to fall over 20% as India’s crop loss is only partially offset by marginal increases elsewhere.
- Stocks are at their lowest in five years, worsening the squeeze in exportable supplies.
- Importers likely to turn more heavily to African origins (Sudan, Nigeria), supporting their local prices as well.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Development
- India (Key Growing States): Monsoon rains have been significantly delayed with totals 30–40% below average in July and early August, restricting sowing and stunting early crop growth.
- Guar, Rajasthan, Gujarat: Hot, dry conditions dominating, no immediate relief projected. Weather models do not show widespread rainfall in the next two weeks.
- Sudan/Nigeria: Some regional dryness but less severe than India; crop is progressing mostly on schedule.
- Short Term Outlook: No meaningful improvement in Indian sowing window; continuing dryness remains the top downside risk for output recovery.
📌 Key Market Drivers Summary
- 🚜 Supply Shock: Massive year-on-year decline in Indian acreage and spot market arrivals.
- 🌾 Export Demand: Sustained international buying interest, especially as global edible oil prices remain high.
- 💹 Speculative Holding: Domestic trade holding back in anticipation of higher prices.
- 🌦️ Weather: Persistently weak monsoon, low soil moisture in critical regions.
- 📅 Seasonality: Festive season demand expected to peak in September–October, potentially straining supplies further if weather does not improve.
🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term trend: Strongly bullish (firm prices likely for at least 4–6 weeks as supply remains restricted).
- Producers: Consider gradual selling to capture further upside but monitor export parity and weather updates closely.
- Importers: Secure forward contracts as spot prices may escalate further; diversify sourcing to include Sudan/Nigeria.
- Industrial users: Plan for potential substitution or rationing if spot prices spike into September–October.
- Speculators: Watch for sharp volatility around crop progress reports and monsoon updates.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region / Exchange | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-day Forecast | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (Premium Hulled) | 2.06 | 2.08 – 2.12 | Very tight supplies, bullish momentum |
| Rajkot (Premium Local) | 5.08* | 5.10 – 5.20* | Expected to break new highs |
| Mumbai (Imported) | 4.04* | 4.05 – 4.15* | Follow-through buying expected |
*USD/EUR conversion applied; actual volatility may differ.
