Shockwaves in the Walnut Market: Ukraine’s Collapse, Global Shifts & EU Dynamics

The global walnut market has been rocked by seismic shifts in 2025, driven primarily by Ukraine’s dramatic collapse in exports—a development that has reverberated across trade chains, pricing, and competitive dynamics. For over two decades, Ukraine maintained a leading role in global walnut exports, trailing only the United States, China, and later, Chile. Between 2020 and 2024, Ukraine exported over 160,000 tonnes worth USD 461.4 million, serving as a critical supplier to the European Union and securing one-third of the nation’s edible fruit and nut export revenues. However, 2025 has witnessed a near-total implosion: export revenues plummeted by 90% to just USD 9.2 million, with shelled walnut exports cratering by 97% year-on-year and in-shell shipments falling 76%. This collapse is tightly tied to new export control measures—triggered by martial law—including minimum export prices, as well as regulatory headwinds affecting the sector’s household growers who provide over 90% of Ukraine’s walnuts.

Meanwhile, global walnut production is scaling new heights: a 35.8% growth between 2015 and 2025 has pushed output to 2.715 million tonnes (in-shell basis), with the United States, Chile, and China now dominating the supply landscape. The European Union’s own output rose 18.2% over the decade but has receded since 2022 even as consumption soared by 75%, reaching nearly 236,000 tonnes in 2025—well above local supply. The EU’s appetite for walnuts is now met primarily by the US (48%), Chile (26%), and China (11%). As Ukraine’s influence fades, these established exporters and emerging players are reshaping the market, influencing prices and competitive strategies across the supply chain, even as EU import values surpass EUR 1 billion and market participants brace for continued volatility and regulatory scrutiny.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Organic	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (EUR)	Sentiment
Walnut kernels	China	Dalian	Light quarter	No	FOB	3.30	-0.05	Bearish
Walnut kernels	China	Dalian	Light amber pieces, 8-12 mm	No	FOB	2.25	-0.05	Bearish
Walnut kernels	China	Dalian	Light pieces, 8-12 mm	No	FOB	2.80	-0.05	Bearish

• Chinese walnut kernel prices softened modestly this week across all grades, in part due to strong global competition and ample output.
• Organic US and Indian walnut kernels are trading at a significant premium (4.50 – 5.30 EUR/kg FOB), supported by reputation and tight specialty supply, but were not major drivers in EU market shares.

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

• Ukraine’s collapse: From third-largest global exporter to dramatically diminished role in 2025.
• Global production: Climbed 35.8% to 2.715 million tonnes (2015-2025), fueling a structurally abundant market backdrop.
• EU supply gap: Local production up 18.2% over the decade but now declining; 2025 output is 139,400 tonnes vs. record consumption of 235,691 tonnes (up 75%).
• Key importers: EU imports topped EUR 1 billion in 2025, mainly from US (48% market share), Chile (26%), and China (11%). Ukraine’s share is minimal post-export controls.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Martial law export controls in Ukraine, notably minimum export prices, have obliterated competitiveness and trade flow continuity.
• Complex regulations for walnuts sourced from smallholders result in supply chain inefficiencies—over 90% of Ukraine’s production is affected.
• Robust production in the US, Chile, and China outpaced global demand growth, creating occasional spot market softness.
• EU remains a growth market for walnut consumption amid stagnating or even declining internal supply.

🌤️ Weather Outlook & Crop Yield Impact

• Weather in California and Chile has been mostly favorable for 2026 harvests, suggesting stable to slightly higher output from these leading exporters.
• Central Asia and the EU’s walnut belt could see localized yield variability due to forecasted spring rainfall shortages; no large global shortages expected.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country/Region	2025 Output (tonnes, in-shell)	Market Share
United States	~700,000	~26%
China	~1,100,000	~41%
Chile	~175,000	~6%
EU	139,400	~5%
Ukraine	Minimal (Was ~100,000+ before 2025)	<1%
Global Total	2,715,000	100%

• Inventories: End-of-season stocks are comfortable, especially in US, China, and Chile—reinforcing moderate price sentiment.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• EU buyers should lock in contracts with primary suppliers (US, Chile, China) for continuity as Ukraine remains unreliable.
• Monitor regulatory signals in Ukraine—sudden changes could briefly affect market availability and pricing.
• Watch for EU demand trends into summer—any further expansion could underpin mild price tightening.
• Premiums for organic, specialty origin, and selected varieties (halves, light color) are likely to persist.
• Short-term, expect sideways-to-soft prices amid strong global supply; longer term, monitor Asian demand and EU internal policy shifts.

📅 Three-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges/Offers)

Product/Origin	FOB Location	Current (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)
Walnut kernels (Light quarter, CN)	Dalian	3.30	3.25 – 3.30
Walnut kernels (Light amber 8-12 mm, CN)	Dalian	2.25	2.20 – 2.25
Walnut kernels (Light pieces 8-12 mm, CN)	Dalian	2.80	2.75 – 2.80

• Short-term downside bias prevails due to supply glut and limited buying momentum.
• No abrupt price reversal expected unless weather events or regulatory changes materialize in top origins.