The dried figs market is heading into its most critical period of the year, as the summer heat intensifies across the vital Aegean production region in Turkey. Farmers are engaged in the delicate pickling process, but all eyes are on the sky—high temperatures, which began to bite in early June, have prompted earlier irrigation and could significantly impact both yield and quality as the new season approaches. While current prices have held steady at elevated levels due to robust past demand and tight inventories, there is widespread reluctance in the industry to commit to forward prices.
Factors such as increased fuel costs, especially diesel, are poised to lift raw material costs further, keeping market participants on edge. Exporters and processors are expected to remain on the sidelines until harvest estimates emerge in mid-July, with clearer price formation only likely as September nears. The regional stability is further clouded by ongoing conflicts in neighbouring countries, creating a complex dynamic where weather, input costs, and geopolitical risks are all poised to influence dried fig availability and global pricing. As the critical drying season unfolds, every irrigation and temperature swing will be watched for its effect on supply and new-season price trends.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Figs dried
no: 7, lerida
FOB 8.30 €/kg
(from TR)
Figs dried
no: 6, natural
FOB 8.50 €/kg
(from TR)
Figs dried
no: 5, natural
FOB 8.70 €/kg
(from TR)
📈 Prices: Latest Dried Figs Market Snapshot
| Type | Grade | Origin | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figs dried | No.: 7, Lerida | Turkey (Malatya) | FOB | 8.30 EUR | 0.00% | Stable |
| Figs dried | No.: 6, Natural | Turkey (Malatya) | FOB | 8.50 EUR | 0.00% | Stable |
| Figs dried | No.: 5, Natural | Turkey (Malatya) | FOB | 8.70 EUR | 0.00% | Stable |
| Figs dried | No.: 7, Lerida | Turkey (Malatya) | FOB | 8.30 EUR | 0.00% | Stable |
| Figs dried | No.: 1, Natural | Turkey (Malatya) | FOB | 9.20 EUR | 0.00% | Stable |
| Figs dried | No.: 1, Lerida | Turkey (Malatya) | FOB | 9.50 EUR | 0.00% | Stable |
Note: Prices as of 2025-06-27. No significant change over the past week as the market awaits new crop cues.
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- Harvest Timing: New season pick will be evident by mid-July; quality and quantities are still highly weather-dependent.
- Farmer Sentiment: Reluctance to offer forward contracts reflects both crop uncertainty and input price volatility.
- Export Market: Turkish exporters continue to dominate, but buyers are holding off as everyone awaits harvest clarity.
- Inventory Position: Low carryover stocks and recent robust shipments keep current spot values well-supported.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Weather Risks: Unusually hot weather in the Aegean may hasten fig maturation and drying, but also stresses trees and impacts fruit size/quality.
- Input Costs: Rising diesel fuel prices increase production and transport expenses, impacting farm-gate and FOB levels.
- Geopolitical Risks: Regional conflicts create additional export uncertainty, possibly affecting logistics or demand from neighbouring countries.
🌦️ Weather Outlook: Aegean Fig Region
- Temperature: Continued above-average highs (mid-30s°C) forecast through early July.
- Rainfall: Little precipitation expected, driving increased irrigation needs and potentially earlier main crop drying.
- Impact: High temps accelerate fruit ripening but can raise shrivel risk and impact metric yields if prolonged without relief.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (mt) | Previous Year (mt) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 245,000 | 250,000 | Declining |
| Iran | 80,000 | 82,000 | Stable |
| USA | 30,000 | 30,500 | Stable |
| Others | 62,000 | 60,000 | Rising |
*Estimates are indicative and adjusted with field reports; new figures are likely by the end of the July harvest tours.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Wait for clarity: Buyers are urged to monitor July weather and early harvest reports before booking substantial new crop tonnage.
- Prepare for volatility: Price risk is skewed toward the upside given weather and input cost trends.
- Spot market: Those needing short-term coverage should act now, as availabilities from the old crop are thin.
- Longer-term: Exporters may capture premiums if adverse weather trims supply; risk management suggested for processors.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB Malatya, EUR/kg)
| Date | Expected Range | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-28 | 8.2 – 9.5 | Stable, watchful |
| 2025-06-29 | 8.2 – 9.5 | Stable, continued wait-and-see |
| 2025-06-30 | 8.2 – 9.6 | Slight upward bias if heat persists |
Values are likely to remain firm until the first reliable crop and weather data emerge mid-July.
