Sorghum Market 2024: Ukrainian Resurgence Amidst Climatic Shifts and Global Instability

The sorghum market has landed back in the spotlight, particularly in Ukraine, as shifting climate patterns and global uncertainties drive both strategic planting decisions and price dynamics. With its intrinsic resilience to heat and drought, sorghum is gaining traction among Ukrainian farmers who are adapting rapidly to the region’s increasingly arid conditions. Recent expert commentary from the National Agricultural University highlights sorghum’s prospects in light of projections that half of Ukraine’s farmland may fall into drought zones by 2050. While the ongoing conflict has curtailed agricultural output in Ukraine’s south and east, 2024 has seen a 39% surge in sorghum acreage—a bold sign of revival. Global yield forecasts, predicting an 8% drop for other grains over the next 25 years, position sorghum as a practical and potentially lucrative alternative, especially in the steppe and Southern regions. Despite a challenging geopolitical and climatic landscape, cautious optimism prevails for 2025–2026 as sorghum becomes an increasingly strategic crop in both local and export markets.

📈 Prices & Market Snapshot

Product	Type	Purity	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Sorghum	White	98%	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.27	0%	Stable
Sorghum	Red	98%	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.27	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Ukrainian Revival: Sorghum acreage up sharply by 39% in 2024 after war-induced lows in the south and east.
• Global Perspective: Increasing interest in drought-resilient grains as world yields for major crops are estimated to drop by 8% in 25 years, amplifying sorghum’s appeal.
• Demand Trends: Feed, biofuel, and food processors in MENA and Asia remain active, supporting export avenues from Ukraine and the US.

📊 Fundamental Drivers

• USDA Reports: US production estimated to remain steady despite regional droughts; global supplies are balanced, with minor stock drawdowns.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money generally neutral, given modest volatility and stable pricing.
• Crop Acreage: Favorable planting conditions in Ukraine but persistent risk of weather disruptions.
• Global Inventories: Steady, with Ukraine regaining some export market share lost in 2022–2023.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Summer 2024 has brought above-average temperatures with limited rainfall in southern and steppe regions. This benefits sorghum compared to other crops, but persistent dryness may constrain yields in marginal areas.
• US (Plains): Mixed outlook, with high early-summer temperatures but improved rainfall in July forecast, potentially stabilizing US output.
• Australia & India: Mixed-to-dry outlook as El Niño reduces monsoon reliability. Watch for potential upward export demand from Asia.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2023/24 Production (Mt)	2024/25* (F) Production (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)	Key Notes
USA	8.7	8.8	1.3	Steady, strong export
Ukraine	0.5	0.7	0.09	Rebounding acreage
Australia	1.6	1.5	0.12	Dry outlook
India	4.8	4.5	0.5	Variable weather
China (importer)	–	–	~2.0	Stable imports

*F = Forecast

📌 Trading Outlook

• Spot prices in Ukraine remain steady at €0.27/kg FCA Odesa; expect support on dips due to resilient demand.
• Monitor rainfall in July/August—extended drought could drive prices up locally and increase export interest.
• Export premiums possible as global buyers diversify risk away from less drought-tolerant grains.
• Increased speculative interest expected if weather remains volatile.
• Producers: Lock in forward sales on price strength; buyers: secure volumes early if drought persists.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Date	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Direction
2024-08-23	Odesa, UA	0.27	↔️ Stable
2024-08-24	Odesa, UA	0.27	↔️ Stable
2024-08-25	Odesa, UA	0.27–0.28	⬆️ Possible rise if dry conditions persist