South Africa’s nuts sector is registering impressive resilience and dynamism, as new trade data highlights a robust 13.3% increase in fruit and nut exports in the first half of 2025. The industry exported US$2.7 billion worth within the period, up from US$2.3 billion a year earlier, underscoring both strong production and successful market diversification. While the European Union remains the linchpin, accounting for 38% (US$1.03 billion) of total shipments—predominantly via the Netherlands—the Asian market is rapidly consolidating its importance, taking in 26% of exports. Notably, despite a 30% U.S. tariff on citrus and nuts, exporters have managed to boost overall sales to the Americas thanks to significant purchases by Canada.
These trends reflect the adaptability of South African producers and exporters as they increasingly lean into non-traditional partners such as Canada, China, UAE, and Nigeria. Analysts predict growth momentum will be maintained by the enduring demand from the EU and Asia, although emerging trade headwinds in the U.S. may reshuffle the list of South Africa’s key partners over the remainder of 2025. This realignment, along with favorable pricing and resilient harvests, sets the stage for an exciting period in the global nuts landscape.
📈 Prices: Current Market Snapshot
| Product | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil nuts (medium) | NL | Dordrecht, NL | €6.58 | €6.58 | 0.0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Exports Surge: South Africa’s total nuts exports up 13.3% YoY in H1 2025 (US$2.7B).
- Key Destinations: EU (38% share), Asia (26%), UK (14%), Americas (9%), Africa (6%).
- Dominant EU buyers: Netherlands (75%), Germany (8%), Portugal (4%), Italy & Spain (3% each).
- Leading Asian importers: UAE (28%), China (13%), Saudi Arabia (8%), India (8%).
- Shift to Americas: Canada absorbs 47% of all SA nuts/citrus to Americas (despite US tariff pressure).
- Africa: Nigeria leads intra-African demand (17%).
- Key products sent abroad: Macadamia nuts, Brazil nuts (notably from NL), alongside avocados, citrus, pears, and apples.
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA & Trade Data: Strong export volumes continue amid steady demand—especially macadamias and Brazil nuts.
- Tariffs: U.S 30% import tariff on African citrus and nuts reducing direct sales to U.S., but offset by gains in Canada and Asia.
- Market Diversification: Competitive pricing and reliable supplies help South Africa maintain and expand its global share.
- Exchange Rate Effects: Stable rand/euro rate has supported export margins and international pricing stability.
- Inventories: Global macadamia and Brazil nut supplies remain tight, adding support to prices.
- Speculative Positioning: Cautious optimism as traders note the industry’s ability to adapt to evolving demand flows.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- South Africa: Mild winter and well-timed rainfall support robust macadamia and citrus harvests, with limited frost damage reported.
- Brazil (Brazil nuts): Amazon basin has experienced favorable rainfall, but logistics issues due to flooding have temporarily slowed exports.
- EU/Asia: No major weather disruptions reported affecting sourcing nations.
- Impact: Overall, positive weather patterns bode well for yield, although logistical challenges in some origins may limit spot-market availability, potentially supporting firm prices in Q3-Q4 2025.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production Estimate (000s MT) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (000s MT) | Major Export Products |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 330 | 42 | Macadamias, citrus, Brazil nuts |
| Netherlands (re-export) | — | — | Brazil nuts (import/re-export hub) |
| Brazil | 230 | 25 | Brazil nuts, cashews |
| USA | 135 | 18 | Pecans, almonds |
| Nigeria | 95 | 16 | Cashews |
- South Africa remains a leading macadamia exporter, with stable to rising stocks projected after a strong 2025 harvest.
- Brazil nut production faces periodic disruption due to climate and logistics, reinforcing price volatility.
- Rising inventories in Africa and Asia could temper price gains in the medium term.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bullish factors: Firm global demand, robust South African exports, stable weather, tight Brazil nut supplies.
- Bearish factors: Potential for increased inventories later in 2025, logistical delays in Brazil, shifting trade flows from the U.S. to Canada.
- Recommendations:
- Buyers: Secure contracts early for macadamias and Brazil nuts, especially for late-2025 delivery, given potential supply constraints.
- Producers: Continue diversifying export markets; monitor geopolitical and tariff developments.
- Traders: Watch for short-term price volatility due to logistics/weather; position for firm Q3 prices but monitor for correction in Q4 with rising stocks.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Region | Product | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht, NL (Spot) | Brazil nuts (medium) | €6.58 | €6.55 – €6.60 | Stable |
| Johannesburg (SA) | Macadamia nuts | n/a | Stable/Firm | Firm |
| Rotterdam (EU) | Bulk mixed nuts | n/a | Mild Uptrend | Up |
Note: Pricing for some origins/grades is indicative. Volatility remains possible pending logistics resolution in South America.
