South Korea Rice Outlook 2025/26: Production Shrinks, Exports Grow, U.S. Rice Auctions Still Frozen

South Korea Rice Outlook 2025/26: Production Shrinks, Exports Grow, U.S. Rice Auctions Still Frozen

South Korea’s rice production continues to decline amid acreage cuts and delayed planting. While domestic consumption is falling, rice exports – especially to Japan – are on the rise. Political momentum is building for major policy revisions, including the long-delayed Grain Management Act and a rice check-off fund.

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📊 1. Key Forecast Figures – Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26

Metric	Volume
Milled rice production	3.44 MMT
Imports (WTO TRQ)	408,000 MT
Exports	200,000 MT
Consumption & residual	3.81 MMT
Ending stocks	977,000 MT
Harvested area	660,000 ha
Yield	6.91 MT/ha

 

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🌾 2. Production – Area Shrinks, Weather Delays Planting

• Production forecast: 3.44 MMT – slightly down from last year.
• Area decline: Estimated at 38,000 ha, lower than last year – halfway to the 80,000 ha government reduction goal.
• Delayed transplanting: Unfavourable May weather (low temps & low sunlight) pushed rice planting back ~10 days.
• Updated planting area data expected from KREI in July.

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🏛️ 3. Policy Shifts – Grain Act & Rice Check-Off Resurfaces

• Grain Management Act: New president Lee Jae-myung and the ruling Democratic Party are reviving a plan to mandate government rice purchases during oversupply situations.
  • Previous governments vetoed the measure; revisions now tie eligibility to acreage cuts to limit the fiscal burden.
• Rice Check-Off Fund:
  • A new non-profit (Korea Rice Industry Association) will raise voluntary check-off funds (~₩28B / $20M total).
  • Goal: promote domestic rice consumption and improve public perception.
  • Critics claim farmers were excluded from planning and decision-making.

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🍚 4. Consumption – Demographic Pressure Continues

• Rice demand continues declining with population loss and lifestyle changes.
• Korea’s population is expected to fall to 36.2 million by 2072, with a record-low fertility rate of 0.7 births per woman.
• Processed rice products (e.g. frozen kimbap, rice snacks) are supporting industrial demand.
• Public-private initiatives like the ₩1,000 breakfast project continue to support rice consumption.

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📦 5. Trade – WTO TRQ Stable, but U.S. Rice Faces Auction Freeze

• Imports remain fixed at 408,700 MT (WTO quota since 2015).
• U.S. rice:
  • No auction of U.S. medium-grain rice since Nov 2023.
  • Stocks from 2021–2022 TRQ (~49,000 MT) to be diverted to liquor production due to ageing.
  • Meanwhile, Thai and Vietnamese rice are auctioned regularly with high completion rates.
• Export outlook strong:
  • Korea exported rice commercially to Japan for the first time in April 2025.
  • Total exports are expected to reach 200,000 MT, up from 180,000 MT in 2024.
  • Exports are also boosted by aid via the WFP and new bilateral channels.

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💵 6. Prices & Stocks

• Domestic rice price reached the government target of ₩200,000 per 80kg bag by June 2025, after climbing from November 2024.
• Brown planthopper damage during the fall 2024 harvest led to a downward production revision.
• The government may release strategic stocks to suppress prices if necessary.

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🔁 7. Export Strategy & Processing Constraints

• MAFRA eased export protocols (e.g. New Zealand no longer requires fumigation for small-pack rice).
• Companies exporting processed rice (e.g. to the U.S.) may explore tariff refund schemes despite Korea’s 513% out-of-quota rice tariff.
• Processors are increasingly concerned about the tight availability of subsidised government rice for export-oriented manufacturing.

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📈 8. Long-Term Trends

• Harvested area has dropped from 708,000 ha (2023/24) to 660,000 ha (2025/26).
• Export share rising: 200,000 MT (4% of supply) in 2025/26.
• Stock-to-use ratio declining, but not yet alarming. Strategic stock releases may adjust the market balance if needed.

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🧭 Conclusion

South Korea’s rice sector continues to evolve through structural contraction, policy reform, and export diversification. The political revival of the Grain Management Act and new promotional strategies reflect growing state efforts to stabilise the sector amid ageing inventories, oversupply concerns, and shifting consumer behaviour. However, unresolved issues around U.S. rice auctions, processing stock access, and farmer inclusion in policymaking could shape the market outlook into 2026.

Source: USDA