Soya Market Analysis: Argentina’s Export Surge and Global Competitive Dynamics

The global soybean market is witnessing a pivotal shift as Argentina, one of the world’s leading exporters, accelerates its upward trajectory for the 2024–25 season. Thanks to favorable weather, improved logistics, and robust international demand—particularly from China, Vietnam, and Egypt—Argentina’s soybean exports are set to reach their highest levels in seven years. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports shipments of approximately 10.5 million tonnes, the most since 2017–18, as producers benefit from rising crush margins, a weaker peso, and significant upgrades at the country’s key ports. Revenues have increased by nearly 10% year-on-year, reinforcing Argentina’s vital position in the global oilseed trade.

This resurgence has come at a time of increased global competition, with Brazil preparing for a record crop and the US entering its seasonal export window. While prices have remained relatively stable during Argentina’s export surge, experts caution that elevated supply from major rivals later in the year could weigh on international values. Domestically, Argentine soybean prices averaged between USD 460–470/tonne, reflecting both international stability and domestic currency volatility.

Supported by healthy global demand, continued recovery in crush activity, and improving operational efficiency, Argentina appears poised to sustain its export strength into early 2026. However, with weather remaining a critical factor in the coming months, all eyes are on Brazil’s planting season and North American harvests. These dynamics reinforce the need for close monitoring of production, logistics, and price movements as the market heads into the next cycle.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Currency	Latest Price	Previous Price	Change	Update Date	Market Sentiment
US	No. 2	Washington D.C.	EUR/kg	0.39	0.39	0%	2025-10-03	Neutral
IN	Sortex clean	New Delhi	EUR/kg	0.76	0.76	0%	2025-10-03	Neutral
UA	—	Odesa	EUR/kg	0.34	0.34	0%	2025-10-03	Neutral
CN	Yellow (organic)	Beijing	EUR/kg	0.78	0.77	+1.3%	2025-10-02	Firm
CN	Yellow	Beijing	EUR/kg	0.68	0.67	+1.5%	2025-10-02	Firm
IN	Soya powder (lecithin, organic)	New Delhi	EUR/kg	2.77	2.77	0%	2025-09-11	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Argentina: 2024–25 soybean exports estimated at 10.5 million tonnes, highest since 2017–18.
• Key buyers: China, Vietnam, and Egypt. China remains the dominant importer.
• Competitive factors: Favorable weather, improved yields, weak peso, and logistical enhancements at Rosario and Bahia Blanca ports.
• Brazil and US supply competition: Brazilian record crop (in planting phase) and upcoming US seasonal export window could pressure prices in Q4 2025–Q1 2026.
• Strong demand for meal and oil: 4.8 Mt (meal), 1.9 Mt (oil) mainly to Asia and North Africa.
• Total export revenues: USD 4.3 billion (+10% YoY).

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Indicate stable global soybean inventories, with some downward adjustments for US and Brazilian stocks.
• Speculative positioning: Managed money funds show a modest net-long position on CBOT soybeans, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook.
• Global Inventories: Argentina’s stocks up, supporting exports; Brazil and US stocks likely to recover by year-end barring weather disruptions.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Argentina: Recent harvest benefited from favorable rains, with neutral to slightly positive outlook for next crop cycle. No major drought forecasted.
• Brazil: Current planting season faces localized dryness in the south. Weather forecasters note elevated La Niña risks, potentially impacting southern production but beneficial for central/northern areas.
• United States: Post-harvest weather remains neutral; attention shifting to 2025 planting intentions and spring moisture levels.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024–25 Prod. (Mt)	2024–25 Exports (Mt)	2024–25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
Brazil	155.5*	93.0*	27.0*
United States	115.5*	52.5*	8.5*
Argentina	50.5*	10.5	5.8*
China (import)	19.7*	–	29.4*
EU (import)	2.6*	–	1.4*

*USDA Sep 2025e/Oct 2025f estimates

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🟢 Producers: Lock in forward sales during price rallies driven by strong Argentine exports and robust global demand.
• 🟠 Exporters: Monitor US and Brazilian supply trends—consider hedging strategies as increased supply could weigh on prices toward year-end.
• 🟡 Importers: Secure physical coverage for Q4 2025 before North and South American crops enter full availability and potential price dips.
• 🔵 Speculators: Watch CBOT positioning and La Niña weather developments for short-term trading opportunities.

📅 3-Day Price Outlook (Regional)

Exchange/Origin	Direction	Range (EUR/kg)	Comment
CBOT (US)	Sideways	0.38–0.40	Stable with neutral U.S. inventory data
Euronext (EU)	Stable/Weak	0.75–0.78	Awaiting Brazil and US supply
Argentina (FOB)	Softening	0.46–0.47	Export window peaking, potential for mild correction