Soya Market Analysis: Bullish Undertones Amid Weather Uncertainty and Steady Demand

The global soya market is currently navigating a complex landscape shaped by steady demand, evolving weather patterns in key producing regions, and shifting speculative positions. Prices across major exchanges have shown modest gains in the near-term contracts, while longer-dated contracts are slightly weaker, reflecting both immediate supply concerns and longer-term optimism for production recovery.

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) data reveals a firming trend for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal, supported by robust export demand and recent USDA reports indicating tighter-than-expected inventories. Meanwhile, FOB offers from the US, India, Ukraine, and China highlight a competitive international market, with Chinese prices showing a notable uptick, especially for organic beans.

Weather remains a critical driver, with forecasts pointing to variable rainfall and temperature patterns in the US Midwest and Brazil, potentially impacting crop development and yield prospects. As planting progresses, market participants are closely watching for updates on acreage and early crop conditions. Additionally, speculative positioning on CBOT continues to influence short-term volatility, with funds reducing net shorts amid improving fundamentals. In China, Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean prices remain stable, reflecting balanced domestic supply and demand dynamics.

With the intersection of strong demand, weather risks, and fluctuating global stocks, the soya market outlook remains cautiously bullish for the coming weeks. Market participants should remain vigilant, as any adverse weather developments or unexpected changes in trade flows could swiftly alter the price trajectory.

📈 Prices

CBOT Soybean Complex (as of 29.05.2025)

Contract	Last Price	Change	% Change	Open Interest	Sentiment
Soybeans Jul 25	1,053.25 US¢/bu	+4.75	+0.45%	344,382	Bullish
Soybean Oil Jul 25	49.35 US¢/lb	+0.42	+0.86%	221,115	Bullish
Soybean Meal Jul 25	293.80 USD/short ton	+0.10	+0.03%	257,198	Neutral

DCE Soybean No.1 (as of 28.05.2025)

Contract	Last Price	Change	% Change
Jul 25	4,131 CNY/t	-2.00	-0.05%
Sep 25	4,133 CNY/t	+1.00	+0.02%

🌐 Current FOB Offers

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	City	Price (USD/kg)	Link
US	No. 2	–	No	Washington D.C.	0.33	Offer
India	Sortex clean	–	No	New Delhi	0.71	Offer
Ukraine	–	–	No	Odesa	0.36	Offer
China	Yellow, organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	0.70	Offer
China	Yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	0.63	Offer

🌍 Supply & Demand

• USDA Reports: Recent WASDE updates indicate lower US ending stocks and firm export demand, especially from China and the EU.
• Global Inventories: World soybean stocks are tighter year-on-year, with Brazil and Argentina facing weather-induced yield pressures.
• Import Demand: China remains the dominant importer, with steady purchases despite domestic stock stability.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money on CBOT is reducing net shorts, reflecting improved market sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals

• Crop Acreage: US planting is near completion, with early emergence rates slightly below the 5-year average due to intermittent rains.
• Crush Margins: Remain positive, supporting strong domestic demand for meal and oil.
• Export Programs: Brazil’s export pace has slowed due to logistical bottlenecks and delayed harvest, while US exports are filling the gap.
• Chinese Market: DCE prices steady; domestic stocks comfortable, but any surge in demand could tighten the balance.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Forecasts show scattered showers and moderate temperatures, beneficial for crop establishment but pockets of dryness persist in Iowa and Illinois.
• Brazil: Southern regions face excess rainfall, risking localised flooding, while central areas are drier than normal, potentially limiting late-planted soybean growth.
• Argentina: Generally favourable, but some areas in the Pampas remain at risk for frost events.

Impact: Weather remains a key risk. Sustained dryness or excessive rainfall in June could significantly impact US and South American yields.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mt)
US	114.5	7.4
Brazil	153.0	31.5
Argentina	50.0	3.3
China (import)	18.5	32.0
EU (import)	2.7	1.0

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-Term: Maintain long positions in nearby contracts; watch for weather-driven volatility in the US and Brazil.
• Mid-Term: Monitor USDA crop condition reports and Chinese import activity for signs of demand shifts.
• Risk Management: Use options to hedge against weather-related price swings, especially in July-August.
• Physical Buyers: Consider forward coverage, particularly for US and Brazilian origins, as global stocks remain tight.
• Speculators: Watch for potential short-covering rallies if weather risks intensify or export demand surprises to the upside.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Product	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
CBOT	Soybeans Jul 25	1,053.25 US¢/bu	1,060-1,075 US¢/bu	⬆️
CBOT	Soybean Oil Jul 25	49.35 US¢/lb	49.50-50.20 US¢/lb	⬆️
CBOT	Soybean Meal Jul 25	293.80 USD/short ton	294-297 USD/short ton	➡️
DCE	Soybean No.1 Jul 25	4,131 CNY/t	4,120-4,150 CNY/t	➡️