Soya Market Dips as US Crop Progress and Trade Tensions Weigh: Price & Supply Outlook

The global soya market has recently experienced a notable decline, reflecting a combination of favourable US weather conditions, strong planting progress, and renewed trade tensions between the US and China. As the week began, Euronext rapeseed mirrored the softness in the Chicago soybean complex, while CBOT July soybeans reached a seven-week low, dropping by 8.25 cents to 1,033.5 US cents/bu.

The latest USDA Crop Progress Report indicated that US soybean planting is 84% complete—4% ahead of the seasonal average—with initial crop ratings showing 67% as ‘good-to-excellent’, slightly below market expectations. Meanwhile, tensions resurfaced after President Trump accused China of breaching tariff agreements, adding uncertainty over future US-China agricultural trade flows. Combined with strong supply signals and mixed speculative sentiment, these factors have led to increased volatility and caution among market participants. Below, we break down recent price movements, fundamental data, and weather impacts and provide trading guidance for the upcoming days.

📈 Recent Market Prices: Global Soybean & Product Markets

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Weekly Change	Currency/Unit	Sentiment
CBOT	Jul 25 Soybeans	1,033.75	-8.25	US-cents/bu	Bearish
CBOT	Jul 25 Soybean Meal	294.80	+0.90	USD/Short Ton	Neutral
CBOT	Jul 25 Soybean Oil	45.94	-0.34	US-cents/lb	Bearish
Euronext	Aug 25 Rapeseed (proxy)	473.25	-1.25	EUR/t	Bearish
DCE (China)	Jul 25 Soybeans No.1	4,119	+8	CNY/t	Neutral

Origin	Type	City	FOB Price	Currency/kg	Last Updated
US	No. 2	Washington D.C.	0.33	USD/kg	2025-05-28
India	Sortex clean	New Delhi	0.71	USD/kg	2025-05-28
Ukraine	–	Odesa	0.36	USD/kg	2025-05-28
China	Yellow, organic, 99.8%	Beijing	0.70	USD/kg	2025-05-27
China	Yellow, 99.5%	Beijing	0.63	USD/kg	2025-05-27

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Crop Progress: 84% of soybeans planted, above 5-year average (80%). First good/excellent rating at 67% (expected: 68%).
• USDA Reports: Indicate robust US planting and favourable vegetative conditions, with nearly optimum germination due to recent rains and moderate temperatures.
• China Demand: Concerns over renewed tariff disputes with the US; China remains the world’s largest soybean importer.
• South American Supply: Record Brazilian crop, but logistical bottlenecks delay some exports to Asia and Europe.
• Speculative Positioning: CFTC data shows managed money turning slightly net-short soybeans as the supply outlook improves.

📊 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Production (MMT)	Year-on-Year Change	Ending Stocks (MMT)
USA	113.0	+2%	9.5
Brazil	156.5	+4%	33.2
Argentina	51.0	+5%	14.7
China	21.5	Stable	31.1
EU	2.6	-1%	1.0

Source: USDA, June 2025 Estimates

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• US Midwest: Forecasts remain largely favourable—temperatures near average and adequate rainfall predicted, supporting fast emergence and strong early stand establishment.
• Brazil, Argentina: Normal to slightly above-normal rainfall expected. Brazilian late-season export logistics could be slowed by intermittent heavy rain.
• China (Northeast): Warm, periodically wet weather; small areas face flash flooding, but major producing regions are unaffected.

Overall, the risk of US drought stress is low for now; this could cap price rallies unless adverse conditions emerge later in June and July.

📅 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect near-term continued volatility, with pricing bias to the downside unless US weather forecasts deteriorate or trade tensions ease.
• Physical buyers should consider scaling into coverage at the current level, especially if origin flexibility is possible.
• Producers in the Americas should monitor CBOT for possible hedge opportunities if US crop ratings remain above 65% and weather stays benign.
• Speculators: Net-short bias may persist as supply optimism dominates, but watch for weather risks and political flashpoints.
• Monitor daily USDA/EIA and CFTC data for shifts in planting, demand, and fund positioning.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Product	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
CBOT	Soybeans Jul 25	1,033.75 US-cents/bu	Range: 1,030–1,050	Weak/Bearish
DCE	Soybeans Jul 25	4,119 CNY/t	Range: 4,100–4,170	Neutral
Euronext	Rapeseed Aug 25	473.25 EUR/t	Range: 470–480	Weak
Physical Market (FOB US)	Soybeans No.2	0.33 USD/kg	Stable to down	Soft

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