Soya Market Faces Historic Import Lows as Brazil Dominates China’s Sourcing

The global soya market is at a crossroads, grappling with a significant contraction in Chinese imports and shifting dynamics among major exporters. April 2025 marked a historic low for China’s soybean imports—at just 6.08 million tonnes, the lowest since 2015. This sharp decline of 22.2% year-on-year is largely attributed to delays in harvesting, transportation bottlenecks, and customs clearance issues. Notably, Brazil has cemented its dominance as China’s primary supplier, delivering 4.6 million tonnes in April, while US shipments to China plunged by 43.7% to just 1.38 million tonnes, mainly due to tariff-related uncertainties. Over the January-April period, Chinese imports from Brazil fell 42.5% year-on-year, reflecting both logistical challenges and evolving trade preferences. Meanwhile, US soybean exports to China for the same period rose by 35.2%, indicating a partial shift in sourcing strategies. These import fluctuations are reverberating through global prices and trade flows, with implications for producers, traders, and end-users worldwide. As weather risks mount in key growing regions and speculative positioning remains volatile, market participants must navigate an increasingly complex landscape marked by supply chain disruptions and geopolitical uncertainty.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	FOB Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
China	Yellow, Organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	0.70	0.67	+4.5%	Firm
China	Yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	0.63	0.59	+6.8%	Firm
USA	No. 2	–	No	Washington D.C.	0.33	0.33	0.0%	Stable
India	Sortex Clean	–	No	New Delhi	0.71	0.71	0.0%	Stable
Ukraine	–	–	No	Odesa	0.36	0.37	-2.7%	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China’s April soybean imports: 6.08 million tonnes (-22.2% YoY, lowest since 2015)
• Brazil’s share: 4.6 million tonnes (dominant supplier, but Jan-April down 42.5% YoY)
• US share: 1.38 million tonnes in April (-43.7% YoY); Jan-April up 35.2% YoY to 12.95 million tonnes
• Global trade flows: Disrupted by harvest delays, logistics, and customs bottlenecks
• Speculative positioning: Increased volatility as traders react to trade policy and supply chain risks

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Recent WASDE indicates tightening global stocks, with lower-than-expected South American output
• Crop Acreage: US soybean planting is ahead of average pace, but weather risks persist
• Inventories: Global ending stocks projected lower, with China drawing down reserves
• Speculative Activity: Managed money net short positions have increased, reflecting bearish sentiment

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: Recent rains have delayed harvest in key states (Mato Grosso, Paraná), impacting export flows
• US Midwest: Mixed outlook—favorable temperatures, but pockets of excessive moisture could slow planting progress in Iowa and Illinois
• Argentina: Dryness persists in some regions, raising concerns for yield potential

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (est. million tonnes)	2024/25 Exports (est. million tonnes)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (est. million tonnes)
Brazil	153	94	31
USA	114	49	8
Argentina	50	7	5
China (import)	18	0	25

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor China’s import pace closely—further delays or trade policy shifts could pressure prices
• Watch Brazilian logistics and weather for potential export disruptions
• US planting progress and Midwest weather to set near-term price direction
• Current price firmness in China may persist if import flows remain tight
• Consider defensive strategies as speculative positioning remains bearish

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (USD/kg)	Forecast Range (USD/kg)	Trend
China (Beijing, FOB)	0.70	0.69 – 0.72	Firm
USA (Washington D.C., FOB)	0.33	0.32 – 0.34	Stable
India (New Delhi, FOB)	0.71	0.71 – 0.73	Stable
Ukraine (Odesa, FOB)	0.36	0.35 – 0.37	Weak