Soya Market Faces Supply Shift Amid U.S.-India Trade Disruption and Robust Global Fundamentals

The global soya market is undergoing a period of pronounced volatility shaped by trade policy disruptions, resilient global output, and regionally varied weather risk. Most notably, India’s soymeal exports to the U.S. have come to a near standstill after steep anti-dumping and countervailing duties—now totaling over 290%—effectively locked Indian shipments out of a key market for non-GMO, high-oil soymeal. Where India had claimed a growing share of the U.S. organic feed market, current trade barriers have erased this flow, with Indian soya exporters now facing massively reduced volumes and squeezed price competitiveness. This shift arrives even as global soy stocks stay healthy, and production projections remain favorable, but weather in key producing regions is mixed: Brazil is eyeing a record harvest amid strong field conditions, while the U.S. Midwest faces heat stress that could limit yield potential.

The divergence in regional prices expresses these fundamentals—U.S. soybeans are trading below Indian and Chinese organic, exposing margin compression for exporters dependent on premium non-GM supply routes. Market participants need to consider ongoing geopolitical and policy risk, speculative fund activity, and the global protein demand path as potential price volatility triggers. Short-term, watch for price consolidation, with weather, harvest data, and trade developments key to the outlook for the coming weeks.

📈 Latest Soya Market Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Organic	Price (EUR/kg, FOB)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Change (%)	Update Date	Sentiment
US	No. 2	Washington D.C.	No	0.37	0.35	+5.7%	2025-08-29	Neutral to Slightly Bullish
IN	Sortex clean	New Delhi	No	0.74	0.72	+2.8%	2025-08-29	Bullish (local supply squeeze)
UA	–	Odesa	No	0.34	0.34	0.0%	2025-08-29	Stable
CN	Yellow, organic	Beijing	Yes	0.79	0.79	0.0%	2025-08-28	Bullish (organic premium)
CN	Yellow	Beijing	No	0.70	0.71	-1.4%	2025-08-28	Stable
IN	Soya powder, lecithin	New Delhi	Yes	2.77	2.77	0.0%	2025-08-07	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India-US Trade Collapse: Indian soymeal exports to U.S. plunged 90%+ after ITC imposed ~290% combined duties. Indian non-GMO supplies, once peaking at 227,000 tonnes, are virtually absent in 2024–25 (just 21,313 tonnes).
• Global Demand: Robust protein meal demand persists. U.S. and Brazil remain dominant exporters, but India’s non-GMO market share is limited mostly to EU and Asian organic markets.
• Production: Brazil set for record 2025 crop despite earlier weather uncertainty. U.S. output faces moderate drought in Midwest; yield revisions possible if hot/dry weather persists.
• Stocks: Global stocks remain healthy. USDA projects global ending stocks near multi-year average, though local tightness exists in Asia.
• Speculative Positioning: Fund managers hold a net-long position in CBOT soy futures, reacting to U.S. weather risks and robust Chinese demand for beans for crushing.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Data

Country	2024/25 Production (million tonnes)	2024/25 Exports (million tonnes)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (million tonnes)
Brazil	156.0	99.0	29.3
United States	114.5	57.0	8.7
Argentina	48.0	6.5	4.2
China (imports)	18.0	108.0 (import)	22.6
India	12.9	2.1	0.8

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Producers

• U.S. Midwest: Ongoing heatwaves and below-average precipitation stressing soy crops. Watch for potential yield downgrades if dryness persists over next 10 days.
• Brazil: Generally favorable conditions in Mato Grosso and southern states. Risk of scattered showers but no major disruptions expected for late filling pods.
• Argentina: Dry stretch in central regions but subsoil moisture remains steady after earlier rains; output targets intact for now.
• India: Monsoon performance in central and western states slightly below normal; could cap output if the deficit continues through pod-setting stage.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Indian soymeal exporters should pivot away from U.S. and reorient marketing to EU/Asia for non-GMO, organic trade.
• Buyers may find relative value in U.S./Ukrainian origin beans as Indian/CN organic prices command significant premium.
• Watch for CBOT price rallies if Midwest drought worsens or Chinese demand accelerates.
• Risk for a short-term price spike in Indian domestic market due to crop concerns and structural loss of U.S. demand route.
• Short-term: Range trade likely, but tail-risk for upside volatility remains.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT & Europe)

Exchange/Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Outlook	Forecast Confidence
CBOT (US No. 2)	0.37	Sideways to +2%	Moderate (weather premium risk)
Euronext (EU imported)	0.39*	Stable to +1%	High
New Delhi (IN Sortex clean)	0.74	+1% to +3% (crop/exports risk)	Moderate
Odesa (UA)	0.34	Stable	High

*Indicative, based on EU import parity with global FOB.