Soya Market Navigates Trade Shifts and Weather Risks as Argentina Exports Surge

The global soya market in 2024 continues to demonstrate remarkable adaptability amid geopolitical and weather-related uncertainties. Argentina, a major player in the global soybean trade, has seen a sharp rise in export volumes for the 2024–25 season. This growth comes despite indirect pressures from the ongoing U.S.–China trade discord, which has upended established export chains and forced major origins to seek new buyers. Official trade data reflects how Argentine exporters have seized the opportunity, expanding shipments to Asia and the Middle East as China intensifies import diversification to shield against supply chain shocks.

Favorable climatic conditions have aided robust harvests, but analysts caution that currency fluctuations, logistical bottlenecks, and political tensions could jeopardize price stability and sustained growth. As the season progresses, market participants are watching global weather patterns and the next round of trade policy developments for their potential to either bolster or hinder the industry’s momentum.

📈 Prices

Origin	City	Type	Organic	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date	Market Sentiment
US	Washington D.C.	No. 2	No	0.39	0.39	2025-09-19	Steady
India	New Delhi	Sortex Clean	No	0.76	0.76	2025-09-19	Neutral
Ukraine	Odesa	–	No	0.34	0.34	2025-09-19	Neutral
China	Beijing	Yellow, Organic	Yes	0.76	0.78	2025-09-17	Softening
China	Beijing	Yellow	No	0.67	0.69	2025-09-17	Slightly Weaker
India	New Delhi	Soya Powder, Lecithin	Yes	2.77	2.77	2025-09-11	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Argentina: Export volumes rising sharply in 2024–25, supported by bumper harvests and demand from Asia & Middle East.
• USA: Faces reduced direct trade with China, but some redirection to other Asian buyers.
• China: Continues to diversify import origins beyond the U.S. to Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and others, driving up global competition for supply.
• India, Ukraine: Gaining relevance in regional markets, though still minor relative to South America and U.S.

📊 Fundamentals

• Trade Flows: Global soya flows are shifting, with Argentine and Brazilian supply increasingly sought by Asian and Middle Eastern importers.
• Government Policy: Ongoing dollar volatility in Argentina and policy intervention remain risks to exporters.
• Inventories: Global inventories are tight, but current South American harvests lend support to near-term supply.
• Speculative Positioning: Fund activity remains cautious due to weather volatility and uncertain trade outcomes.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Argentina & Brazil: Recent web data highlights mostly favorable weather, but scattered dryness in some central zones; short-term forecasts are neutral with risks of late frost in southern areas.
• Midwest USA: Weather remains a concern with localized drought potentially trimming late yields.
• China: Northeast soya regions are receiving adequate rainfall; no major threats reported for the coming week.

Impact: Overall, production prospects are good, but market participants should monitor late-season risks, especially from cold snaps or dry spells in South America.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 Output (Mt)	2024/25 Output Est. (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)
Brazil	154	159	28
Argentina	50	56	8
USA	113	111	7
China	20	20	26

Note: Estimates from latest USDA/CONAB/AgriMin sources and recent web updates.

📆 Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Argentina export competitiveness—short-term bullish, but watch for further currency volatility and port logistics in Q4.
• Chinese diversification of import sources is likely to cap major price surges; expect continued strong demand from Asia and MENA.
• Speculative market participation will likely remain cautious until Q4 weather and U.S.-China developments clarify.
• Weather remains a critical swing factor; closely watch late-season risk in South America and Midwest U.S.
• Buyers: Secure medium-term contracts on price dips, especially for South American origins.
• Sellers: Consider gradual commitment on forward contracts while monitoring for possible late harvest disruptions.

📉 3-Day Price Forecast (EUR/kg, FOB)

Exchange/Origin	Last Close	Day 1	Day 2	Day 3	Trend
USA – Washington D.C.	0.39	0.39	0.39	0.38	Sideways/Soft
China – Beijing (Yellow, Organic)	0.76	0.76	0.75	0.75	Softening
India – New Delhi (Sortex Clean)	0.76	0.76	0.76	0.75	Sideways
Ukraine – Odesa	0.34	0.34	0.34	0.34	Stable