The global soya market is navigating a period of cautious optimism, with recent developments in international trade and shifting weather patterns shaping both sentiment and pricing. Soya futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) opened with modest gains, buoyed by a temporary easing in trade tensions between the US and EU. This relief was welcomed by market participants, even as broader commodity markets, such as crude oil, experienced downward pressure due to expectations of increased OPEC+ output.
Meanwhile, physical soybean prices in key origins like China, the US, and Ukraine show mixed trends, reflecting both local supply-demand balances and global macroeconomic influences. Weather remains a critical watchpoint, with forecasts for major growing regions in the US Midwest, Brazil, and China indicating variable rainfall and temperature patterns that could impact yield prospects as the northern hemisphere planting season progresses.
Market participants are closely monitoring USDA acreage updates, global stock levels, and speculative fund positioning, all of which are contributing to a nuanced, data-driven trading environment. The interplay between improving trade relations, evolving weather risks, and shifting global inventories will likely dictate the direction of soya prices in the coming weeks.
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📈 Prices: Latest Soya Market Quotes
| Exchange/Contract | Last Price | Weekly Change | Currency | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT Soybeans Jul 25 | 1060.75 | -1.75 (-0.16%) | US-Cent/bu | Neutral/Soft |
| CBOT Soybean Meal Jul 25 | 296.40 | +0.10 (+0.03%) | USD/Short ton | Stable |
| DCE Soybeans Jul 25 | 4133.00 | -26.00 (-0.63%) | CNY/t | Weak |
| FOB China (Organic) | 0.70 | +0.03 | USD/kg | Firm |
| FOB China (Conventional) | 0.63 | +0.04 | USD/kg | Firm |
| FOB US No.2 | 0.33 | 0.00 | USD/kg | Steady |
| FOB Ukraine | 0.36 | -0.01 | USD/kg | Soft |
| FOB India (Sortex) | 0.71 | 0.00 | USD/kg | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Trade Policy: Recent easing in US-EU trade tensions has reduced immediate downside risk for US soya exports.
- USDA Reports: Market awaits updated US planting progress and acreage estimates; early data suggests near-average pace.
- Global Stocks: World inventories remain adequate but are tightening in China and Brazil due to robust crush demand and slower farmer selling.
- Speculative Positioning: Funds remain modestly net short, but are covering positions on weather and trade news.
- Currency Moves: Stronger USD weighs on US export competitiveness, while CNY weakness supports Chinese imports.
📊 Fundamentals Snapshot
| Country | 2024/25 Output (Mt) | 2024/25 Stocks (Mt) | Latest Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 113.5 | 7.1 | Planting on track, acreage steady |
| Brazil | 153.0 | 30.0 | Harvest complete, strong exports |
| Argentina | 50.0 | 5.5 | Recovering from drought |
| China (Import) | 105.0 | 12.0 | Stocks tightening, import pace high |
| India | 13.0 | 1.2 | Stable, domestic demand rising |
| Ukraine | 5.2 | 0.4 | Export pressure, prices soft |
☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- US Midwest: Forecasts point to scattered showers and near-normal temperatures over the next week, supporting germination but raising concerns over localized flooding in some low-lying areas.
- Brazil: Post-harvest dry spell persists; no major threats to old crop, but soil moisture for early 2025/26 planting is below average in the south.
- China: Mixed rainfall in northeast growing regions; adequate for now, but a dry bias could develop if current patterns persist.
- Argentina: Mild, dry weather favors late harvest and fieldwork.
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term: Expect range-bound trading as markets digest trade news and weather updates.
- Physical buyers: Consider covering near-term needs as FOB prices in China and US remain firm; monitor for any supply disruptions.
- Exporters: Take advantage of improved sentiment for forward sales, especially in Brazil and US.
- Speculators: Watch for volatility spikes on weather headlines; short positions could be squeezed if US weather turns adverse.
- Processors: Margins remain favorable in China and India; consider forward hedging meal/oil needs.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Region | Current | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT Jul 25 | 1060.75 US-Cent/bu | 1055–1070 US-Cent/bu | Sideways/Bullish bias |
| DCE Jul 25 | 4133.00 CNY/t | 4100–4160 CNY/t | Soft/Volatile |
| FOB CN (Organic) | 0.70 USD/kg | 0.69–0.72 USD/kg | Firm |
| FOB US No.2 | 0.33 USD/kg | 0.32–0.34 USD/kg | Steady |
| FOB Ukraine | 0.36 USD/kg | 0.35–0.37 USD/kg | Soft |
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