Soya Market Standoff: China Turns to Brazil, US Growers Brace for Price Squeeze

The soya market faces a turbulent season as China’s unprecedented halt on forward purchases of US soybeans for September and October has set off alarm bells across global supply chains. Traditionally, China kicks off US buying as the American harvest begins, providing critical demand support for US farmers. However, this year, Beijing has rerouted its buying to Brazil, even at a premium of $40 per tones over US offers—a move underlining the ongoing US–China trade tensions and market realignment.

With US soybeans trading at €343 per tones ($372 or $10.15/bushel) on futures and Brazilian supplies fetching considerably more, Chinese importers are tolerating higher costs due to punitive tariffs and a deliberate diversification strategy. Though both US growers and global markets are uneasy, some remain hopeful that ongoing negotiations can restore some of this crucial trade flow before Brazil’s 2026 crop floods the market. The consequences of a prolonged standoff could include a significant surplus in the US, lower prices, and mounting pressure on farm incomes, even as Chinese buyers pay more for oil and meal. Meanwhile, Brazil is eyeing a record 176 million tones in 2025/26, with China’s total demand forecast at an all-time high of 112 million tones. Stakeholders will closely watch crop progress, trade talks, and weather disruptions, all of which could tip the balance for the next season’s price direction.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Date	Sentiment
China	Yellow, organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	0.79	+0.01	2025-08-20	Firm
China	Yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	0.71	+0.01	2025-08-20	Firm
USA	No.2	—	No	Washington D.C.	0.35	0.00	2025-08-13	Soft
India	Sortex clean	—	No	New Delhi	0.72	0.00	2025-08-13	Neutral
Ukraine	—	—	No	Odesa	0.35	0.00	2025-08-13	Soft

Key Exchange Closing Prices (as of Aug 20, 2025)

Exchange	Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT	Nov ’25	$372/tonne (€343/t)	-1.1%	Bearish
Euronext	Nov ’25	€368/tonne	-0.9%	Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China has ceased forward purchases of US soybeans for Sep–Oct, rerouting buying to Brazil at a significant premium.
• Brazilian July 2025 soybean shipments to China topped 11.67 million tonnes—a record surge.
• US exports could fall by nearly 48% if Chinese demand remains absent through January 2026.
• Brazil’s projected 2025/26 harvest: 176 million tonnes.
• China’s 2025/26 soybean import demand: forecast at 112 million tonnes (record high).

📊 Market Fundamentals

• China’s 3% base import duty on all beans, but US soybeans face an extra 20% tariff.
• Brazilians benefit from lower tariffs and improved logistics to China, despite higher nominal prices.
• Quality considerations: US soybeans have lower moisture and higher oil yields; however, trade barriers weigh heavier than quality premiums.
• Speculative net short positions have increased at CBOT; market mood is defensive, anticipating US inventory build-up.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Midwest US: Cooler temps and scattered rains have aided pod setting, but excessive rain in Iowa and Illinois raises disease risks.
• Brazil (Mato Grosso): Drier-than-normal forecast for early planting; some risk of late-emergence if rains delay until October.
• India: Monsoon slightly below average; overall adequate for standing crop.
• Ukraine: Weather neutral, with productivity unaffected by recent storms.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. (mln t)	2025/26 Forecast (mln t)	Stocks (mln t)
Brazil	161	176	33
USA	115	119	21
China (domestic)	19	20	17
Argentina	52	54	9

Sources: USDA, industry estimates

📬 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• US growers should prepare for potential price declines and consider forward selling where possible to lock in current levels.
• Importers, particularly in Asia, may secure Brazilian supplies now but monitor US pricing for any arbitrage opportunities if trade talks thaw.
• Speculators: In the short term, carry a bearish-to-neutral outlook; large US supplies and limited export outlets could pressure prices further.
• Watch for quick sentiment shifts if US–China negotiations progress or early Brazilian planting is hampered by drought.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Exchange/FOB	Current Price	Forecast Range	Direction
USA Midwest	CBOT Nov ’25	$372/tonne (€343/t)	$366–$373	Soft/Bearish
Euronext	Euronext Nov ’25	€368/tonne	€365–€370	Soft
China FOB	Beijing	0.79 EUR/kg (organic)	0.78–0.80	Firm

Expect continued volatility as the market digests trade and weather updates.