Soya Market Surges: China’s Import Boom and Global Price Signals

The global soya market has entered a phase of heightened activity, driven primarily by an unprecedented surge in Chinese soybean imports during May. After a sluggish April marked by logistical bottlenecks and a decade-low import volume, the latest data reveals that China—by far the world’s largest soybean consumer—has doubled its monthly purchase, hitting a record 13.92 million metric tons. The remarkable rebound follows resumed customs clearance speeds and a revitalized crushing sector. Notably, arrivals from Brazil soared 37.5%, capitalizing on a bumper South American harvest, while shipments from the US posted robust growth of 28.3%. These shifts come as buyers seek to stabilize supply chains and capitalize on favorable sourcing conditions. Weekly market prices, for both organic and conventional beans, reflect these competitive fundamentals with mild bullish undertones – especially for U.S. and Indian origins, which are exhibiting stronger price momentum.

For professionals, the swift normalization of China’s import apparatus and the strategic shift in sourcing patterns signal a recalibrating landscape. Increased flows from the US and Brazil, tempered by falling Argentine and Ukrainian exports, shape a dynamic trade mix. Price spreads across major countries, currency strengths, and the latest weather in key growing belts will play a critical role in guiding trading and procurement strategies in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Organic	Current Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Soybeans	China	Beijing	Yellow, 99.8%	Yes	0.76	0.75	+1.3%	Bullish
Soybeans	China	Beijing	Yellow, 99.5%	No	0.68	0.68	0.0%	Neutral
Soybeans No.2	USA	Washington D.C.	No. 2	No	0.34	0.32	+6.3%	Bullish
Soybeans	Ukraine	Odesa	–	No	0.35	0.35	0.0%	Stable
Soybeans	India	New Delhi	Sortex clean	No	0.72	0.70	+2.9%	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China’s Imports: Record 13.92m tons in May (up 128% MoM), driven by a 37.5% surge from Brazil and 28.3% gain from the US. Total Jan-May arrivals from Brazil fell 14% YoY, but US supplies for the period rose strongly (+34.3%).
• South American Crop: Brazil’s bumper soybean harvest has driven aggressive export flows, while the US share in China’s market reached 11.7% in May.
• Argentina: Shipments to China collapsed 47.5% YoY in Jan-May, mirroring national export constraints due to reduced crop and domestic demand.
• US Outlook: Stocks remain comfortable but are forecast to be tighter by the end of the year due to heightened Chinese demand and trade rerouting.
• India & Ukraine: Strong Indian premiums reflect stable production and sustained domestic use, while Ukraine keeps price stability amid logistical challenges.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Recent WASDE data show marginal upward revision in global supplies based on South American output.
• Speculation: Non-commercial funds have modestly increased net long positions, encouraged by rising Chinese import demand and steady weather in the US Midwest.
• Inventories: Global ending stocks are forecast to increase, but distribution is highly uneven, favoring Brazil and the US, while Argentina’s reserves diminish.
• Crushing Margins: China’s crushers are seeing improved margins as import flow normalizes and demand for meal and oil stays firm.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: Harvest complete; southern regions report favorable moisture reserves ahead of next sowing cycle.
• US Midwest: Recent thunderstorms brought much-needed relief, improving soybean emergence rates, but spotty dryness in some states could pressure yields if sustained.
• Argentina: Mild, dry spell forecast to persist, limiting late-crop development but aiding harvest progress.
• India: The monsoon has begun, raising prospects for a strong planting season and steady output.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production Forecast (mmt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mmt)	YoY Change
Brazil	154.0	38.5	+2%
USA	118.7	9.2	-3%
Argentina	50.0	3.1	-8%
China	18.4	25.0	+1%
India	12.5	1.0	0%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Procurement: Short-term buyers should monitor CBOT and Euronext, as weather-driven volatility remains elevated.
• Bullish drivers: Sustained Chinese demand, constrained logistics in Argentina, possible tightening of US stocks if export pace persists.
• Bearish risks: Seasonal harvest pressure in Brazil, strong Indian planting, and improving Midwest US rains if forecasts hold.
• Strategy: Consider forward contracts for Q3 needs; hedging advisable amid weather risks and China-driven demand surges.
• Watch: Daily USDA crop progress, China’s custom clearance pace, and CBOT speculative flows for near-term cues.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Product	Current Price	Forecast 3-Day Range	Sentiment
CBOT	Soybeans	$12.35/bu	$12.30 – $12.55/bu	Volatile/Bullish
Euronext	Soybeans	€460/t	€450 – €468/t	Stable
Beijing (FOB)	Organic Soybeans	€0.76/kg	€0.75 – €0.78/kg	Bullish
Washington D.C. (FOB)	Soybeans No.2	€0.34/kg	€0.32 – €0.36/kg	Bullish
New Delhi (FOB)	Sortex clean	€0.72/kg	€0.71 – €0.74/kg	Firm