The global soya market is navigating a period of heightened volatility and shifting trade patterns, with the European Union emerging as a major force in driving demand. As of early May 2025, EU soybean meal imports have soared by 24% year-on-year, reaching 15.77 million tonnes—already surpassing the total for the entire 2023/24 season. This remarkable growth is fueled by a sharp rebound in Argentine exports, which have more than doubled, and a continued, albeit slower, rise in Brazilian shipments. Meanwhile, Ukraine has steadily increased its market share, reflecting a broader diversification of EU sourcing strategies. The backdrop to these developments includes lower export duties in Argentina, production recovery in key origins, and a significant reduction in imports from Russia. These shifts are influencing global price trends, speculative positioning, and the outlook for both producers and consumers. With weather risks looming in the Americas and the Black Sea, and ongoing changes in global oilseed trade flows, market participants are closely watching for signals that could drive the next price move. This report analyzes the latest price data, supply and demand fundamentals, and external drivers shaping the soya market outlook.
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Soybeans
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FOB 0.73 €/kg
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Soybeans
FOB 0.36 €/kg
(from UA)
📈 Prices
| Origin | Type | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (USD/kg) | Change (Weekly) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | No. 2 | Washington D.C. | FOB | 0.34 | 0.00 | Stable |
| India | Sortex clean | New Delhi | FOB | 0.73 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Ukraine | – | Odesa | FOB | 0.36 | 0.00 | Stable |
| China | Yellow, organic | Beijing | FOB | 0.67 | -0.02 | Weak |
| China | Yellow | Beijing | FOB | 0.60 | -0.02 | Weak |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- EU soybean meal imports: 15.77 million tonnes (as of 4 May 2025), up 24% YoY
- Brazil: 7.9 million tonnes to EU (+2.7% YoY); share down from 60.4% to 50.1%
- Argentina: 5.73 million tonnes to EU (+119% YoY); share up from 20.5% to 36.3%
- Ukraine: 0.76 million tonnes to EU (+76.7% YoY); share up from 3.4% to 4.8%
- EU reduces imports from Russia: Down nearly fivefold YoY
- Global context: Increased EU imports of soybeans and rapeseed; reduced vegetable oil imports
📊 Fundamentals
- USDA Reports: Recent WASDE data shows stable US ending stocks but concerns over acreage due to weather
- Crop Acreage: US planting progress near average; Brazil/Argentina harvests complete, with Argentina rebounding after drought
- Inventories: Global stocks expected to rise in 2024/25, led by South American recovery
- Speculative Positioning: Managed funds have reduced net shorts on CBOT soybeans, reflecting cautious optimism
⛅ Weather Outlook
- US Midwest: Rainfall forecast for next week may delay some planting but benefits soil moisture; risk of localized flooding
- Brazil: Drier-than-average conditions in southern states, but main crop harvest is complete
- Argentina: Favorable weather aiding late-season fieldwork and logistics
- Ukraine: Mild, wet spring supports crop development, boosting export potential
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (Mt) | 2024/25 Exports (Mt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 156.5 | 93.0 | 34.2 |
| US | 113.3 | 52.0 | 8.9 |
| Argentina | 50.0 | 7.5 | 23.1 |
| EU | 2.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| Ukraine | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- EU import demand remains robust, especially from Argentina and Ukraine; watch for further shifts in supplier shares
- Monitor US weather developments closely—planting delays or adverse conditions could trigger price rallies
- Brazilian supply remains ample, but logistical or currency risks could impact export flows
- Speculative positioning is neutral to slightly bullish; short-term volatility likely on weather/news
- Buyers: Consider covering forward needs as prices are stable but upside risk exists from weather or logistics
- Sellers: Take advantage of stable to slightly declining prices in China to secure export sales
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Current Price (USD/kg) | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington D.C. (US) | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 | Stable |
| New Delhi (IN) | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 | Stable |
| Odesa (UA) | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | Stable |
| Beijing (CN, yellow, organic) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.66 | Slightly Weak |
| Beijing (CN, yellow) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.59 | 0.59 | Slightly Weak |
