Soya Markets in Flux: Trade Hopes, USDA Moves, and Weather Uncertainty Shape Short-term Outlook

The soya market enters mid-August, hovering between buoyancy from diplomatic developments and caution ahead of critical USDA data. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump’s statements about revived Chinese demand for American soybeans fueled optimism, quickly mirrored in Monday’s CBOT gains. The subsequent delay of US import tariff hikes on Chinese goods marks another short-term relief, allowing US soy exports into China free from new levies—at least until November. However, traders remain wary: Tuesday’s CBOT opening saw notable losses as investors closed positions ahead of the pivotal WASDE report from the USDA, expected to modestly lift 2025/26 production and carryout estimates. Meanwhile, the US Crop Progress report signals stable but slightly deteriorating conditions, with weather models predicting possibly hot and dry spells in the Midwest that could stress crops during a crucial pod setting phase.

Export inspection data remains solid: while weekly volumes slipped 17% from the prior period, they remain 48% above last year’s pace for the same week. Key markets include Mexico, Germany, and Egypt, with total US marketing year exports at 48.37 million tonnes (+11% y/y). Chinese buyers are still holding back due to lingering trade war uncertainty, but a window for renewed imports seems open.

📈 Prices & Markets

Latest Exchange Prices

Exchange	Contract	Last Close	Change	Currency/Unit	Sentiment
CBOT	Nov 25 Soybeans	1001.75	-0.94%	US-Cent/bu	Cautious; awaiting WASDE, production expectations
CBOT	Aug 25 Soybeans	989.50	+2.35%	US-Cent/bu	Short-lived rally, trade optimism
Dalian	Nov 25 Soy No.1	4093.00	-0.15%	CNY/t	Stable; waiting for imports, cautious
Spot Market (US)	No.2 FOB WA DC	€0.35	0%	EUR/kg	Unchanged
Spot Market (IN)	Sortex Clean FOB Delhi	€0.72	0%	EUR/kg	Stable
Spot Market (UA)	FOB Odesa	€0.35	0%	EUR/kg	Stable
Spot Market (CN)	Yellow, organic FOB Beijing	€0.76	-2.6%	EUR/kg	Weakening, ample supply

🌍 Supply & Demand

• USDA WASDE preview: Trade expects US soybean production forecast to tick higher from July report—potentially increasing global and US ending stocks for 2025/26.
• China: Imports from the US remain subdued due to ongoing trade negotiations, but a possible surge before tariffs return in November.
• Export pace: Despite a 17% w/w drop, US exports are well above last year’s pace (+11% y/y).
• Inventory trends: China’s buying appetite may return; weak Dalian futures reflect the current abundant domestic supply.
• Crush margins: Lower meal and oil input costs provide an incentive for processors; rising soya oil and canola lift oilseed complex sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals

• Crop condition: US Crop Progress shows 68% good/excellent—slightly lower w/w but in line with 2024.
• Export inspections: 518,066 tonnes last week; US total this marketing year 48.37 million tonnes.
• Key importers: Mexico (154k t), Germany (69k t), Egypt (58k t) last week.
• Speculative activity: Position reduction ahead of WASDE; market finely balanced between weather- and report-based impulses.

☀️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• US Midwest: Recent normal development rates; risk of hot, dry conditions ahead could constrain pod fill and lower yield potential if realised.
• South America: Off-season; planting outlook later this autumn—no immediate weather-driven drivers.
• China: Fairly stable, ample domestic inventory; weather not an issue.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	Production 2024/25 Estimate (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)
US	121.5	9.9 (forecasted rise)
Brazil	154.0	29.8
Argentina	51.0	20.8
China	15.6	14.4
EU-27	2.7	1.0

📌 Market Drivers & Key Insights

• Delay of US-China tariffs increases opportunity for US exports—bullish short-term driver.
• THE USDA WASDE report (today) will offer new direction; higher stocks may cap further upside.
• Emerging Midwest weather risks offer support but remain uncertain.
• Speculative unwinding ahead of data releases has increased volatility.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Volatility likely after WASDE; consider hedging active positions until new crop forecasts are digested.
• Physical buyers: Consider making forward purchases if the Midwest hot/dry bias increases and supports prices.
• Producers: Watch for post-WASDE market reaction; price rallies may offer attractive new-crop sales.
• Importers (China/Europe): Monitor US Midwest weather and Chinese tariff policy shifts—window for cheaper US beans may close later in Q4.
• Speculators: Await clearer signals post-WASDE before aggressive re-positioning.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Outlook	Comments
CBOT	Nov 25	Sideways to volatile	Likely significant moves post-WASDE; risk skewed by US weather
DCE	Nov 25	Stable/slightly soft	Ample supply, still weak import signals from China
EUR Spot	FOB US/UA	Unchanged to firm	Monitoring weather risks, but physical availability is stable for now