The global soybean market is currently under noticeable downward pressure, driven by several key supply- and weather-related factors. Following the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop progress report, both domestic and global supply projections for soybeans have increased beyond market expectations. This news, coupled with reports of significantly improved soybean crop conditions in the United States due to timely rainfall and stable forecasts, has reinforced a bearish outlook among traders and analysts. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reflected this mood on Monday, with September soybean contracts dropping by 0.44% to settle at $12.80 per bushel and November contracts down 0.40% at $12.99 per bushel. The pronounced improvement in crop health, especially across key U.S. growing states, is tempering concerns about potential yield risks and suggesting that ample supply may outpace demand in the near term.
Globally, the sentiment is further weighed by ongoing robust production prospects in South America and adequate inventories held by major exporters. As traders focus on near-term export demand and fresh weather data, the persistent expectation of large harvests continues to limit upside potential. Buyers and sellers are advised to closely monitor unfolding weather patterns, USDA updates, and shifts in international demand, as these will likely set the tone for price movements through the key weeks ahead.
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📈 Prices
| Exchange/Market | Contract/Type | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT | September Futures | $12.80/bu | -0.44% | Bearish |
| CBOT | November Futures | $12.99/bu | -0.40% | Bearish |
| Physical Beijing (CN) | Yellow, Organic (99.8%) | €0.78/kg | +1.3% | Neutral |
| Physical Beijing (CN) | Yellow (99.5%) | €0.70/kg | +1.4% | Neutral |
| Physical Washington D.C. (US) | No.2 | €0.35/kg | 0.0% | Stable |
| Physical New Delhi (IN) | Sortex Clean | €0.72/kg | +1.4% | Firm |
| Physical Odesa (UA) | Conventional | €0.33/kg | -2.9% | Weak |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- USDA Crop Progress: Significant improvement in U.S. soybean conditions pushes yield expectations higher, amplifying supply-side pressure.
- South American Harvest: Ongoing robust prospects for Brazil and Argentina bolster global inventories.
- Export Demand: Recent weeks have seen subdued U.S. export bookings; global buyers sourcing opportunistically amid lower prices.
- Speculative Positioning: Funds appear to be rolling back bullish positions, adding to momentum on the downside.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Global Inventory: Major exporters continue to hold comfortable stock levels, softening near-term supply risks.
- Acreage Forecasts: Revised upward for the U.S. and Brazil, supporting plentiful supply estimates.
- Historical Comparison: Compared to previous months, current prices reflect a broad correction from earlier weather-fear-driven highs.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- US Midwest: Latest NOAA and private forecasts indicate continued favorable rainfall and moderate temperatures, reducing stress on developing pods.
- South America: Southern Brazil and Argentina show normal precipitation patterns, with no immediate threats to late-planted soybeans.
- Black Sea: Mostly average summer conditions sustaining stable crop development in Ukraine and Russia.
🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Output Estimate (mmt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (mmt) |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 117.5 | 10.3 |
| Brazil | 157.0 | 31.8 |
| Argentina | 53.7 | 6.7 |
| China (Import) | 19.2 | 32.5 |
🚦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Bearish near-term. High supply and improved weather signal continued price softness through August.
- Exporters: Consider hedging near-term sales and monitor basis levels, especially in the U.S. and Brazil.
- Buyers: Assess strategic covering for late Q3 and Q4 at current low prices.
- Watch for updated USDA S&D data and any reversal in speculative net-short positions as potential triggers for volatility.
- Weather changes in September could quickly shift sentiment—maintain flexibility.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price | Forecast Range (Next 3 Days) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT September | $12.80/bu | $12.65 – $12.85 | Lower-to-Stable |
| CBOT November | $12.99/bu | $12.80 – $13.05 | Soft |
| Beijing Physical (99.8% Organic) | €0.78/kg | €0.77 – €0.79 | Stable |
| Washington D.C. Physical | €0.35/kg | €0.34 – €0.35 | Stable |
| New Delhi Physical | €0.72/kg | €0.71 – €0.73 | Stable |