Soybean Market Analysis: Strengthening Prices Amid Global Political Moves and Dynamic Demand

The global soybean market is currently navigating a landscape shaped by political intrigue and shifting fundamentals. As ongoing trade discussions between the US and China stir uncertainty, a rise in biofuel ambitions and robust Chinese import activity are bolstering price prospects, particularly for old-crop contracts. Yet, seasonal factors and excellent US planting weather have kept new-crop prices under check, highlighting the market’s dual character this June. For market participants, this means carefully tracking both the macro backdrop—such as US biofuel quotas and global trade friction—and granular supply/demand signals like planting progress and export figures. Recent weeks have seen Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) old-crop soybean futures hit multi-week highs, driven chiefly by a rebound in US export shipments and record Chinese buying. In contrast, CBOT new-crop contracts have faltered, reflecting trader confidence in this year’s US crop due to favorable conditions and rapid progress in planting and early crop development. The contrasting trends underscore the importance of understanding both immediate demand surges and longer-term supply resilience.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date	Change
CN (China)	yellow, organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	FOB	0.75	0.77	2025-06-10	-2.6%
CN (China)	yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	FOB	0.70	0.69	2025-06-10	+1.4%
US (USA)	No. 2	–	No	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.33	0.33	2025-06-05	0%
IN (India)	sortex clean	–	No	New Delhi	FOB	0.71	0.71	2025-06-05	0%
UA (Ukraine)	–	–	No	Odesa	FOB	0.36	0.36	2025-06-05	0%

Exchange	Contract	Closing Price (USD/t)	Weekly Change	Monthly Change	Sentiment
CBOT	July (old crop)	388	+2.1%	+1.5%	Bullish
CBOT	November (new crop)	Approx. 378	-2.5% (est.)	-2.0% (est.)	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US-China Trade Talks: Ongoing friction continues to influence Chinese soybean purchases. Lower US sales to China in the second half of the season are reflective of political strain and competition from South American suppliers.
• Biofuel Policy Shift: The US EPA’s proposal of a 2026 biodiesel blending quota at 4.65bn gallons (up from 3.35bn in 2025, though below industry hopes) has lifted market sentiment, underpinning old-crop prices.
• Chinese Record Imports: China imported a record 13.92m tons of soybeans in May (+129% m/m), far exceeding forecasts. This spike is attributed to improved customs flows and strong domestic meal demand.
• Strong US Export Data: For the week ending June 5, US exports jumped 81.5% to 547,000 tons; USDA puts total 2024/25 exports to date at 45.19m tons (+11.5% y/y).
• New Crop Prospects: Favorable US weather and rapid planting (90% complete as of June 8) have encouraged expectations of a large 2024 harvest and weighed on new crop prices.

📊 Fundamentals

• Planting Progress: US sowing ahead of 5-year average (90% vs. 88%).
• Crops Health: 68% rated good/excellent (down from 72% last year). Mild stress in certain areas, but no widespread threat.
• Stocks & Exports: USDA expects 50.3m tons in US season-end export total. Chinese crusher utilization above 50% underlines solid demand momentum.

Country	2024/25 Production (mt)	Major Export/Import	2024/25 Stock Estimate (mt)
USA	121.5*	Exporter	7.9*
Brazil	153.0*	Exporter	35.1*
Argentina	50.0*	Exporter	21.2*
China	20.5*	Importer	22.7*

*Sources: USDA, industry consensus, latest estimates

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest (Key Region): Weather has been warm with adequate rainfall; outlook remains favorable for the next week with minor storms and typical June temperatures, boosting crop establishment prospects.
• Brazil: End of harvest season; recent dryness has no material impact. New season forecasts currently neutral.
• Argentina: South and central regions continue recovery from last year’s drought. Soil moisture and conditions remain stable and supportive for 2024/25 planting intentions.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚡️ Old-crop contracts (July): Remain supported by robust export pace and external demand; consider holding or scaling into strength, monitoring for sharp reversals if Chinese buying abates.
• 🌱 New-crop contracts (November): Hedging recommended due to pressure from good weather and excellent planting conditions.
• 💼 Commercials: Use spot price firmness to price forward sales, but maintain flexibility on new-crop volumes in light of weather volatility.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Price (USD/t or USD/kg)	Trend
CBOT July (old crop)	388	Stable to higher
CBOT November (new crop)	Approx. 377	Stable to slightly weaker
China (99.8% organic)	0.75/kg	Slight downward correction
China (99.5%)	0.70/kg	Slightly firmer
US (No. 2)	0.33/kg	Stable