Soybean Market Analysis: Tighter Margins, Global Volatility, and Weather Risks

The global soybean market is showing signs of heightened volatility as a result of both fundamental pressures and speculative sentiment. After a period of sideways trading, recent data from multiple exchanges reveal subtle but significant shifts: a slight uptick in US CBOT soybean futures, contrasting declines in Chinese DCE contracts, and dynamic adjustments in soybean oil and meal prices. At the heart of this volatility lies a blend of supply-side uncertainty—driven by ongoing weather risks in the US Midwest and South America—and persistent demand from key importers, particularly China.

On the supply front, tightness in global stocks and strong competition between US and South American origins amplify the risks of any production shocks. Meanwhile, speculative interests appear cautious but alert to potential weather disruptions and policy surprises, especially ahead of upcoming USDA reports and Chinese buying patterns. Given the interplay of regional prices (including current FOB offers out of the US, Ukraine, India, and China) and the backdrop of fluctuating currency valuations, the near-term market could be poised for breaks in either direction, hinging on weather and macroeconomic triggers. For industry players, this means a close watch on forecasts and crop condition updates will be crucial for navigating the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices

CBOT Key Soybean Contracts (as of 29.07.2025)

Contract	Last (US-Cent/bu)	Change	Sentiment
Aug 25	989.75	+1.00 (+0.10%)	Neutral/Bullish
Sep 25	993.75	+1.25 (+0.13%)	Neutral/Bullish
Nov 25	1012.50	+1.00 (+0.10%)	Neutral
Jan 26	1031.25	+1.25 (+0.12%)	Neutral

Global Physical Market (FOB, latest EUR/t)

Origin	Type	Location	Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change
US	No.2	Washington D.C.	0.35	0.00
India	Sortex Clean	New Delhi	0.72	+0.01
Ukraine	—	Odesa	0.33	-0.01
China	Yellow, organic	Beijing	0.77	0.00
China	Yellow (99.5%)	Beijing	0.69	+0.01

DCE Soybean Futures (CYN/t, 28.07.2025 Close)

Contract	Last	Change
Sep 25	4183	-40 (-0.96%)
Nov 25	4115	-19 (-0.46%)

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Crop Progress: US soybean condition ratings declined slightly due to emerging dryness across major producing areas in the Midwest. Key states such as Iowa and Illinois reported increased soil moisture deficits, raising yield concerns.
• Brazil & Argentina: Brazil’s safrinha crop harvest nears completion, but excessive rains delayed fieldwork in some southern regions; Argentina has reported better-than-expected yields but faces export parity challenges due to currency fluctuations.
• China Demand: Soybean imports remain robust, but crush margins have narrowed in recent weeks due to high international prices. Any uptick in demand or procurement timing shifts can quickly sway Chicago and Dalian prices.
• Global Stocks: USDA estimates global ending stocks slightly below last year, implying continued tightness and vulnerability to weather or logistical disruptions.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Recent WASDE projections confirm modest reductions in the US production outlook; market participants await next acreage and yield updates for more clarity.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains net long but reduced exposure this week, reflecting cautious optimism and an eye toward weather developments.
• Processor Margins: Soybean meal and oil prices on CBOT are diverging; meal has gained on improved animal feed demand, while oil corrects lower alongside global vegetable oil complex and energy markets.

Product	Contract	Last Price	Change
Soyoil	Aug 25 (CBOT)	56.53 US-Cent/lb	-0.02 (-0.04%)
Soyoil	Sep 25 (CBOT)	56.19 US-Cent/lb	-0.08 (-0.14%)
Soymeal	Aug 25 (CBOT)	265.50 USD/tn.sh.	+0.60 (+0.23%)
Soymeal	Sep 25 (CBOT)	270.20 USD/tn.sh.	+0.80 (+0.30%)

☁️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: 7-day models forecast above-normal temperatures with below-normal rainfall, particularly across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. This increases crop stress during the critical pod-setting stage, raising risks for yield reductions if dryness persists.
• South America: Brazilian southern states expect scattered showers, which may slow late harvesting; overall, conditions remain mostly favourable. Argentina is set for stable weather with slight warming, supporting late-field activities.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Prod. (Mt)	2024/25 Stocks (Mt)
Brazil	155*	36*
US	116*	7*
Argentina	50*	7*
China (Import)	n/a	33*

*typical consensus estimates; subject to revision with next USDA report

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor US weather closely; prolonged dryness could prompt sharp upward price moves, particularly in Nov/Jan contracts.
• Short-term: Consider profit-taking on old-crop positions; new-crop hedges advisable given weather uncertainty and global tightness.
• Watch for renewed Chinese buying if crush margins recover or currency shifts; this may serve as a catalyst for advances.
• Brazilian/Argentine FOB indications hold a premium to US Gulf; watch for narrowing spreads if US yields falter in coming weeks.
• Meal/oil spread traders: Meal is likely to remain relatively supported vs. oil due to sustained animal feed demand.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange	Front Month	Forecast Range	Direction
CBOT	Nov 25	1012–1040 US-Cent/bu	Sideways to Slightly Higher
DCE	Sep 25	4150–4230 CYN/t	Sideways/Bounce on Technicals
EU FOB	Ukraine	0.32–0.36 EUR/t	Weakness then Stabilisation