Soybean Market Analysis: Weak Demand and Sluggish Prices Continue to Pressure the Market

The global soybean market continues to experience significant stress due to a confluence of weak domestic and international demand, persistent supply-side pressures, and uninspiring market sentiment. Despite a steady downtrend in prices, soybean sales volumes remain lackluster across major producing and trading regions. In India, the heart of monsoon season has failed to stimulate buying activity, with local mandis such as Jalgaon, Shivpuri, and Mandi Deepak posting weak or declining prices. International edible oil markets—crucial for soybean demand—also remain subdued, amplifying the bearish undertone.

Notably, even sharp recent price declines (e.g., a USD 0.7 drop per quintal in Jalgaon) have not revived interest among buyers. Market participants, from traders to processors, indicate that there is little expectation of a near-term rebound, with both seasonal and broader economic pressures likely to dominate the tone in the coming weeks. Overall, ample supplies, weak crush margins, and a stagnant export market are cementing bearish sentiment, making the outlook for soybeans decidedly cautious for participants in the value chain.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Location/Exchange	Type	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
CBOT (US, Washington D.C.)	No. 2	0.37	0.35	+5.7%	Neutral-to-Bearish
IN (New Delhi)	Sortex Clean	0.74	0.72	+2.8%	Bearish
UA (Odesa)	–	0.34	0.34	0%	Bearish
CN (Beijing)	Yellow, Organic	0.79	0.79	0%	Neutral
CN (Beijing)	Yellow	0.70	0.71	-1.4%	Bearish

• India: Jalgaon mandi trades at USD 59/quintal, Shivpuri at USD 71/quintal, and Mandi Deepak at USD 87/quintal. Prices continue to drift lower.
• Latest EU/US physical offers mostly flat or slightly higher week-on-week, but sentiment remains negative due to low demand.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Domestic buying interest remains extremely weak across key Indian production mandis; processors holding back purchases in hopes of lower prices.
• Export demand for Indian soybeans and meal is subdued due to cheaper alternatives from South America and excess global stocks.
• US stock position is stable but faces competition from Brazil and Argentina, where record or near-record crops have swelled inventories.
• China, the largest importer, continues to buy cautiously amid ample domestic reserves and concerns over feed demand.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Recent June crop progress indicates strong soybean crop conditions in the US Midwest, ahead of the crucial pod-setting stage.
• Acreage: Global 2024/25 soybean acreage projected to rise modestly as US and South American planting intentions remain robust.
• Inventories: Global ending stocks projected up year on year, particularly for Brazil and Argentina due to excellent weather and yields.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds hold net short positions on CBOT soybeans, reflecting the market’s bearish outlook.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• US Midwest: Near-term forecasts call for mostly favorable rainfall and moderate temperatures, supporting crop development and reducing production risk.
• India: Monsoon activity in central/northern India is patchy. Some producing belts have received below-average rains, slightly raising local concerns, but overall, supply risks remain limited for the near term.
• South America: Mild, clear weather currently expected, aiding early field preparations for the next planting cycle.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (mmt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (mmt)	Status
Brazil	157	36	Record high
USA	119	9	Stable
Argentina	50	7	Growing
China	20	28	Adequate
India	12	2	Tight

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Traders: Avoid large long positions; maintain hedges or consider short-side strategies while demand remains deflated.
• Processors: Focus on demand-based buying, avoid inventory build-up amid flat to weaker product markets.
• Exporters: Monitor South American offers closely as competition will remain intense and price-sensitive clients are chasing lowest values.
• Conservative buyers: Hold off major commitments; evaluate buying opportunities on spot dips for essential near-term needs.
• Bullish scenario only if weather suddenly turns adverse in a major origin (US or Brazil) or if edible oil demand recovers unexpectedly.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Today	Day 2	Day 3	Trend
CBOT (US)	0.37 EUR/kg	0.37 EUR/kg	0.36 EUR/kg	Soft weakness
India (New Delhi)	0.74 EUR/kg	0.73 EUR/kg	0.73 EUR/kg	Bearish
UA (Odesa)	0.34 EUR/kg	0.34 EUR/kg	0.34 EUR/kg	Stable