The soybean market has experienced subtle but significant turbulence this week, reflective of a confluence of domestic and global dynamics. Prices for most soybean futures slipped slightly, marking a modest yet telling correction from early-session gains. Cash prices echoed this sentiment, nudging lower as growing season weather uncertainties and weaker crude oil prices pressured related soy products. Although June’s export figures provided some optimism—soybeans outperformed last year’s volumes by a notable margin—monthly activity softened marginally compared to May. Meanwhile, record-high soybean meal exports were weighed down by seasonal factors and the sharpest drop in soybean oil shipments in eight months.
Agronomic indicators reflect a crop broadly progressing in line with typical annual benchmarks, but recent weather data and declining crop condition ratings have prompted renewed concerns among traders and analysts. Regional variability in crop health, especially declines in Illinois, Nebraska, and Missouri, contrasts modest improvements in parts of the Midwest and the Dakotas, thickening the air of uncertainty in market sentiment. As long as the export pace remains subdued and the U.S. crop condition trends downward, market participants should brace for continued downward price pressure, particularly in the absence of bullish catalysts for demand or weather.
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📈 Prices: Latest Soybean Market Overview
| Exchange/Market | Product | Contract/Grade | Closing Price | Change (WoW) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT | Soybeans | August 2025 | $9.69½ / bu | +½¢ | Neutral/Weak |
| CBOT | Soybeans | Cash (National Avg) | $9.34¼ / bu | -2¼¢ | Weak |
| CBOT | Soybeans | September | $9.73 / bu | -2¢ | Bearish |
| CBOT | Soybeans | November | $9.92¾ / bu | -2¢ | Bearish |
| Physical (FOB US) | Soybeans | No. 2 | €0.35 / kg | No change | Stable |
| Physical (FOB IN) | Soybeans | Sortex Clean | €0.72 / kg | No change | Stable |
| Physical (FOB UA) | Soybeans | Std. | €0.35 / kg | +€0.02 | Mildly Bullish |
| Physical (FOB CN) | Soybeans | Yellow, Organic | €0.78 / kg | +€0.01 | Firm |
| Physical (FOB CN) | Soybeans | Yellow | €0.70 / kg | +€0.01 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- June soybean exports reached 1.501 MMT (+12% YoY), but fell 5.9% from May’s pace.
- Soybean meal exports hit a record 1.34 MMT for June, still down 2.7% from May on calendar effects.
- Soy oil exports slid sharply to 42,458 tons (an 8-month low), -18.8% MoM.
- 85% of US soybeans are blooming; 58% have set pods—mirroring seasonal norm.
- Crop condition ratings: 69% good to excellent (down 1% WoW); Brugler500 Index seen at 375 (down 3 points).
- State-level condition: Illinois (-7), Nebraska (-5), Missouri (-4), Iowa (-2); Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio uptick; Dakotas (+2/3).
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- USDA & NASS Reports: New acreage and progress data confirm crop broadly on schedule but show slipping quality.
- Export Trends: Higher YoY exports offset by recent monthly softness, especially in oil.
- Spec Positioning: Managed money tilting bearish amid softening fundamentals, tight crude oil market weighs on soy oil derivatives.
- Input Costs: Moderate with generally benign fertilizer and logistics costs, though crude oil softness affects transport and raw input calculus.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Short-term forecast (US Midwest): Scattered showers returning to parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana; cooler-than-average temperatures holding through the weekend.
- Impact: Rainfall may stabilize stressed crops in the Midwest, but moisture deficits persist in Missouri and parts of Nebraska, restricting potential yield recovery.
- Long-term risk: Watch for emerging dry pockets in the central Corn Belt and severe weather threats in the eastern Dakotas.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
- US ending stocks: Flat to slightly higher amid expectations for improved August rains.
- Brazil: Large crop now projected at 155+ MMT, supporting ample global supply despite local logistics snags.
- Argentina: Recovering from drought—new season output expected to rebuild global crush supplies.
- China: Remains world’s top importer, with stable inward flows; domestic production growth limited.
- EU: Increasing imports from Ukraine and US to offset local shortfall.
💡 Trading Outlook & Key Recommendations
- Bullish factors: Improving export pace could lend support if realized, but remains subdued mid-term.
- Bearish signals dominate: Weak cash and futures pricing, declining crop condition, robust South American output.
- Short-term strategy: Favor defensive hedging, review basis contracts, monitor crop weather closely.
- Physical buyers: Consider gradual coverage to capture price dips, especially with EU and Asian demand stable.
- Speculators: Remain cautious; upside limited unless bullish weather or export surprises emerge.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price | 3-Day Forecast | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT (August 2025) | $9.69½ / bu | $9.66 – $9.73 / bu | Sideways/Bearish |
| US Cash Beans (Avg) | $9.34¼ / bu | $9.31 – $9.36 / bu | Slightly Bearish |
| FOB US (No. 2) | €0.35 / kg | €0.34 – €0.36 / kg | Flat |
| FOB India (Sortex) | €0.72 / kg | €0.71 – €0.73 / kg | Stable |
| FOB China (Org./Yellow) | €0.70 – €0.78 / kg | €0.69 – €0.79 / kg | Firm |
