Soybean Market Heats Up: Supply Crunch Drives Price Surge Across Edible Oils

The global soybean market is reeling from a sharp increase in edible oil prices resulting from tightening supplies and decreased import volumes. Over the past week, leading edible oils—particularly soybean and cottonseed—have experienced notable price increases of approximately $1.20–$1.80 per 10 kg. This surge is attributed to a slowdown in oil imports and diminished pipeline stocks, which have more than offset generally lackluster demand from stockists. Soybean oil futures responded swiftly, with contract prices rising to $190.35 per quintal. Similarly, soybean seed prices firmed at $179.08 per quintal, reflecting strong demand from oilseed crushers and processors.

More broadly, the upward momentum in edible oils has cascaded into related markets: cottonseed oil jumped to $147.25 per 10 kg, and mustard oil gained to $149.27 per 10 kg. Even as some global benchmarks like Malaysian palm oil and US crude soybean oil rose more modestly, import costs and logistics are keeping prices elevated. Analysts caution that current firmness is at risk of persisting unless there is a sudden uptick in import shipments or a pronounced falloff in domestic demand. As a result, market participants are bracing for continued volatility amid thin inventories and changing weather patterns in major producing regions.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Type	Organic	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Date	Change (%)	Sentiment
Soybeans No.2	US	Washington D.C.	No. 2	No	0.35	0.35	2025-08-07	0.00	Stable
Soybeans Sortex Clean	IN	New Delhi	Sortex Clean	No	0.72	0.72	2025-08-07	0.00	Stable
Soybeans	UA	Odesa	–	No	0.35	0.35	2025-08-07	0.00	Stable
Soya Powder (Lecithin)	IN	New Delhi	Lecithin	Yes	2.77	2.77	2025-08-07	0.00	Stable
Soybeans Yellow, Organic	CN	Beijing	Yellow	Yes	0.76	0.78	2025-08-06	-2.56	Negative
Soybeans Yellow	CN	Beijing	Yellow	No	0.68	0.70	2025-08-06	-2.86	Negative

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Domestic supplies of edible oils are tight, reflecting low import availability and depleted pipeline stocks across India and China.
• Soybean crush margins remain attractive, supporting continuous mill demand despite inventory pressures.
• Exporters: The US and Ukraine maintain stable FOB prices amid robust demand, but future outlook depends on US crop progress and Black Sea logistics.
• Mustard and sunflower oils also trace an upward trajectory on the back of overall oilseed scarcity, implying a broader oil complex rally.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE signals lower global soybean end-stocks due to weaker South American output and growing Chinese import needs.
• Global Stocks: World ending stocks are down ~2% YoY, mostly from weather-dented yields in Brazil and Argentina.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds remain net-long in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean contracts, underpinned by restricted South American selling and potential weather risks.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Recent rains provided some crop relief, but above-average temperatures forecast for next 3 days could threaten pod-filling stages, requiring close monitoring.
• Brazil: Southern growing states continue to face below-normal rainfall, raising concerns for upcoming planting intentions.
• Ukraine: Weather remains favorable, supporting current crop development and anticipated export flows.

🌐 Global Comparisons

Country	Production Estimate (2024/25, Mt)	Stock (Mt)	Export Outlook
US	117.5	8.2	Stable
Brazil	151.0	31.8	Slightly Reduced
Argentina	50.5	5.4	Weak
China (Import)	19.8	15.0	Robust Import Demand
India (Import)	11.5	2.9	Strong Import Need

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 💡 Buyers: Anticipate continued firmness—book short-term needs early, especially with import arrivals slow and freight rates high.
• 📦 Sellers: Consider gradual sales as inventories dwindle; manage risk if weather improves in key origins or import flows rise.
• 🔍 Traders: Monitor US weather and Brazilian planting signals closely, and watch for any relaxation of trade policies or new crop sales from South America.
• 🚦 Overall: Market remains tight, but volatility will persist with every new crop/weather update or macroeconomic shift.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (Next 3 days)	Bias
CBOT (US No.2)	0.35	0.34–0.37	Bullish
India FOB (Sortex clean)	0.72	0.71–0.73	Firm
Ukraine FOB	0.35	0.35–0.38	Stable to Strong

This outlook suggests the Soya market retains a bullish undertone as supply constraints across both domestic and global markets coincide with expected weather-driven volatility.