Soybean Market Pulse: Global Growth Meets Supply Shifts and Weather Uncertainty

The soybean market stands at a pivotal crossroad in 2025, fueled by lower production growth rates but robust expansion in key regions. According to the latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, the global soybean sector is set for a steady annual increase of 1% over the next decade—slower than the 2.2% seen previously, but solid against a backdrop of evolving agricultural policies and climate variability. Brazil remains the world’s largest producer and will see yearly gains of 0.8%, with greater yield efficiency thanks to prolific double cropping, especially with maize.

The US continues to be a powerhouse, albeit with marginally slower growth at 0.5%. Major producers such as Argentina and Paraguay are on an upward curve, targeting 56 and 13 million tonnes by 2034 respectively, while India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada are emerging as dynamic new sources of global supply. In China, output remains positive but is tapering as policy priorities shift away from cereals. The lion’s share of global expansion—an estimated 80%—will be attributed to yield gains, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of the sector to both economic and weather-driven pressures. Market prices currently reflect a cautious optimism as buyers weigh weather risks and macroeconomic uncertainties, while traders closely eye USDA reports, crop progress data, and shifting demand out of Asia.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
US	No. 2	Washington D.C.	0.35	0.35	0.0%	Cautiously Stable
India	Sortex clean	New Delhi	0.71	0.71	0.0%	Neutral
Ukraine	–	Odesa	0.34	0.34	0.0%	Neutral/Bearish
China	Yellow, organic (99.8%)	Beijing	0.77	0.76	+1.3%	Firm/Bullish
China	Yellow (99.5%)	Beijing	0.68	0.68	0.0%	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global Production: Projected to expand at a slower 1% per annum through 2034.
• Key Regions: Brazil leads with 0.8% growth/year; US grows at 0.5%; Argentina and Paraguay ramp up output; India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada to see above-average growth rates.
• Consumption: Rising demand in Asia for livestock feed and edible oil remains a severe driver.
• Government Policy: China shifting away from cereals slightly dampens soy momentum.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains moderately long amid weather risk and tight global ending stocks.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Recent WASDE projections show manageable but tightening US ending stocks; watch for monthly revisions and acreage updates.
• Global Inventories: Lower year-on-year, especially in Brazil after last season’s drought-impacted harvest.
• Double Cropping: 80% of global production increases attributed to yield improvements, especially in Brazil (soy/maize) and Argentina (soy/wheat).
• International Trade: US and Brazil remain primary exporters, but Ukrainian and Russian soy offer emerging export potential.
• Market Links: Price differentials between FOB origins remain narrow as buyers diversify sources amid uncertain weather outlooks.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: Southern states face drier-than-average forecasts, risking yield penalties in late-planted beans. Central-western regions remain stable.
• US Midwest: Early pollination period faces heatwaves, but recent rains have alleviated some crop stress. Weather models project above-average temperatures for the next 10 days.
• Argentina: Key producing regions show favorable rainfall, supporting strong crop prospects for 2025.
• Ukraine & Russia: Conditions remain broadly favorable, but volatility in the Black Sea region continues to pose logistical risks.

🌏 Production & Stocks: Leading Producers

Country	Production 2025 (Mt)	Stock-to-Use Ratio %
Brazil	159 (est.)	14
US	114 (est.)	9
Argentina	56 (proj. 2034)	10
Paraguay	13 (proj. 2034)	7
China	21 (est.)	16
India	13 (est.)	8

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Brazil/US weather closely—significant production risks could swing prices upward.
• Consider short-term long positions in organic/Asian soybeans given continued tightness and strong demand signals.
• Watch for China government announcements—further reductions in soybean support or import tariffs could alter demand outlook.
• Monitor Black Sea export logistics, especially if geopolitical risks escalate.
• Tighten risk controls given historic volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Exchange/Market	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Forecast Trend
US	CBOT (FOB Wash. D.C.)	0.35	0.34 – 0.37	Sideways to Slightly Up
India	Delhi (FOB)	0.71	0.70 – 0.73	Stable
Ukraine	Odesa (FOB)	0.34	0.33 – 0.35	Stable to Slightly Down
China	Beijing (Organic FOB)	0.77	0.76 – 0.79	Firm
China	Beijing (Conventional FOB)	0.68	0.68 – 0.69	Firm