Soybean Market Under Pressure: Gujarat Acreage Drops, Prices Strengthen Amid Uncertain Weather

The global soybean market is navigating a volatile period, with Indian acreage data—especially from the key producing state of Gujarat—raising alarms about tightening supplies. Gujarat, typically a stable contributor to India’s soybean output, has seen a drastic reduction of nearly 2.70 lakh hectares in planted soybean area compared to last year. Erratic rainfall, late monsoon onset, and heightened fertilizer costs are putting extra pressure on yields and farmer profitability.

Elsewhere, steady demand from China and recovering US exports keep global market attention on weather risks and policy developments. Market sentiment has turned notably bullish as supply concerns from India join global uncertainties. If weather in late September offers respite, production may partially recover, but the chances of a significant rebound are waning. Stakeholders are preparing for tighter stocks globally and firmer price trends at major exchanges through the season.

📈 Latest Soybean Prices at Major Origins

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
China	Yellow, organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	FOB	0.78	+1.3%	Bullish
China	Yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	FOB	0.69	+1.5%	Bullish
USA	No. 2	–	No	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.39	+5.4%	Bullish
India	Sortex clean	–	No	New Delhi	FOB	0.76	+2.7%	Bullish
Ukraine	–	–	No	Odesa	FOB	0.34	0%	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

• Gujarat, India: Soybean acreage dropped 60% YoY to 1.85 lakh ha, due to erratic rains. Saurashtra—the state’s prime region—was hit hardest.
• Production Risks: Market consensus forecasts a 40–45% output decline if rainfall does not normalize or if heatwaves develop during harvest.
• Global Balance: US and Brazil remain robust exporters, but tightening Indian supply adds global upside risk. Chinese crushing demand remains stable, with few signs of rationing.

📊 Key Fundamentals

• Input Costs: SOPA warns fertilizer input costs are rising after a 10% import duty hike, placing extra margin pressure on Indian growers.
• Acreage Data: Gujarat’s reduction—almost tripling the decline compared to last year—suggests India could shift to import dependency if output falls further.
• Global Inventories: South American stocks are steady but awaiting end-of-season yield confirmation, while US stocks are below historical averages.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds have added to long positions as weather and policy risk raise bullish stakes.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India: Weather for the next 10 days remains critical. IMD forecasts suggest light to moderate scattered rains for Gujarat’s Saurashtra, but not sufficient to reverse the early damage. Moisture deficits may be partially filled, aiding late-sown fields only.
• Major Exporters: Midwest US experiencing average rainfall; Brazil’s new-crop planting delayed by spotty weather but forecast to improve—limiting downside risk.
• Yield Watch: If Indian rainfall resumes and high temperatures abate in harvest, partial recovery is possible. Otherwise, yield risk rises further in late-sown districts.

🌐 Global Production and Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (mt)	2024/25 Stocks (mt)	Export Share (%)
USA	112	7.7	34
Brazil	157	33.8	51
India (est)	9.1	0.53	1
China	18	27.6	<1

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚠️ Buyers: Secure requirements for Q4 and early Q1—bullish risk premiums likely to persist through harvest.
• ⚠️ Growers: Explore pre-harvest contracting if weather risk remains high. Consider hedge strategies due to increased price volatility.
• ⚠️ Traders: Watch for potential government response on fertilizer or import policies in India. Carry bullish positions but be prepared for profit-taking if rains return decisively.
• ⚠️ Industrial Users: Monitor Indian supply situation for signals of regional spot shortages or price spikes, particularly in pulse and oilseed complexes.

📆 3-Day Regional Soybean Price Forecast

Origin/Exchange	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
CBOT (US No.2)	0.39	0.40–0.41	Bullish
Euronext (EU)	0.69	0.70–0.72	Bullish
India FOB	0.76	0.77–0.80	Bullish
China FOB (conventional)	0.69	0.70–0.71	Bullish