Soybean Market Weekly Analysis: Price Pressure Persists Amid Expanding Stocks, Tepid Exports & Mixed Outlook

The global soybean market currently faces considerable downward pressure, with prices experiencing notable declines over the past week on major exchanges and in key export markets. In the United States, soybeans saw a 2–3% downward shift, heavily influenced by rising end-of-season stock levels, reduced weekly export volumes, and persistently good crop conditions propelled by favorable weather. The recent soybean acreage report showed a modest reduction, but this was not sufficient to override broader bearish factors. Export interest also slowed, keeping market optimism in check.

Apart from domestic concerns, global trends have further weighed on soybean values. Export prices in Ukraine remain steady, yet demand remains soft—particularly for non-GMO varieties—while domestic processors are finding it harder to move meal due to heightened competition from South American exporters. Vegetable oil markets add additional headwinds, with crude oil and rapeseed futures sharply lower; this has had a direct spillover effect on oilseed pricing overall. As the rapeseed harvest kicks into gear and proposals for new export duties linger, the soybean complex faces both supply-side and regulatory risks going forward.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange/Market	Product	Latest Price	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Sentiment
CBOT (July futures)	Soybeans No.2	376.30	389.10	-3.3%	USD/tonne	Bearish
CBOT (Nov futures)	Soybeans No.2	377.40	384.70	-1.9%	USD/tonne	Bearish
EU (Ukraine, Port)	GMO	382–385	387	-1.3%	USD/tonne	Bearish
FOB Washington DC	No.2	0.35	0.34	+2.9%	EUR/kg	Neutral/Mixed
FOB New Delhi	Sortex clean	0.73	0.72	+1.4%	EUR/kg	Neutral
FOB Odesa		0.34	0.35	-2.9%	EUR/kg	Bearish
FOB Beijing	Yellow, organic	0.75	0.76	-1.3%	EUR/kg	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• USDA June Stocks: 27.43 million tonnes (2.9% above expectations, 1.03 MT higher y/y)
• US Planted Acres: 83.38 million (down from 2024 and March projections)
• Weekly US Exports (June 20–26): 224,800 tonnes (down 11.4% w/w)
• Cumulative US 2024/25 Exports: 45.85 million tonnes (91% of USDA annual target, +10.3% y/y)
• Ukraine GMO Port Price: USD 382–385/tonne
• Ukraine non-GMO (Western Border): USD 390–410/tonne (low demand at port)
• Domestic Ukrainian demand suppressed: Soybean meal export difficulties, shifting to rapeseed

📊 Key Fundamentals

• Stocks: Larger-than-expected US carryover is a primary bearish driver.
• Exports: Weaker volumes from the US and Ukraine highlight increased competition, especially from South America.
• Speculative Positioning: Net short or cautious across exchanges, as traders factor in global oversupply and bearish macro sentiment.
• Policy/Regulation: Potential new export duty in Ukraine is a major point of uncertainty for both soybeans and rapeseed.
• Oil Market: Lower crude and vegetable oil prices add to the pressure on oilseeds.

⛅ Weather Update

• US Midwest: Favorable moisture has kept 66% of soybean fields in ‘good/excellent’ condition, matching last year. Further rainfall forecasted for early July supports crop development and caps yield risk.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Mild weather and intermittent showers reported, supporting early crop conditions.
• Brazil/Argentina: Off-season, limited impact, but recent rains favor soybean plant development where applicable.

🌐 Global Stocks & Production Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (est.)	2024/25 Exportable Stocks	Major Buyers
USA	113.2 MT*	27.43 MT (stocks)	China, EU, Mexico
Brazil	153.0 MT*	60.0 MT (exports)	China, EU
Argentina	51.0 MT*	6.5 MT (exports)	China, EU
Ukraine	4.8 MT*	2.3 MT (exports)	EU, Turkey

*USDA + industry estimates, June 2024

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Ukraine’s legislative developments on the 10% export duty, which could disrupt flows and pricing.
• Expect continued price pressure unless US export volumes rebound and/or weather issues emerge mid-season.
• Watch for a technical correction should US crop condition ratings or acreage unexpectedly decline in further USDA updates.
• Physical buyers should consider locking in portions of Q3 needs on price dips as rapeseed supply will further weigh on oilseed values short-term.
• Global processors may find advantageous supply opportunities from the US and Ukraine over the next month.

📆 3-Day Soybean Price Forecast

Market	Current Price	3-Day Outlook	Expected Range
CBOT (July)	USD 376.30/t	Weak/Bearish	USD 370–380/t
CBOT (Nov)	USD 377.40/t	Sideways to weak	USD 372–382/t
UA, Port (GMO)	USD 382–385/t	Stable/Weak	USD 380–387/t

Downward pressure likely to persist in the near term based on ample stocks, cautious global demand, and favorable US crop outlook.