Soybeans Under Pressure: Futures Fall, While Soymeal Shines on Robust Demand

The global soy complex had a challenging week marked by declining soybean futures but surprisingly strong demand for soymeal, painting a mixed landscape for producers, processors, and traders alike. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean contracts fell to weekly lows, pressured by favourable U.S. planting weather and muted export interest, factors that steered investor sentiment toward the bearish camp. In contrast, soymeal exports surged to highs not seen since October, helping offset some market pessimism.

Meanwhile, trade outlooks turned more constructive amid easing tensions between the U.S. and EU, and increasing speculative positioning in soybeans. As new USDA processing data looms and volatile weather patterns continue to shape crop prospects, the market stands at a critical inflexion point where both risks and opportunities abound. Short-term volatility is likely, with attention squarely fixed on upcoming governmental reports and weather developments.

📈 Prices – Spot & Futures Performance

Exchange	Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT	Jul ’25 Soybeans	1,041.75 US¢/bu	▼18.50 (−1.7%)	Bearish
CBOT	Jul ’25 Soymeal	294.10 USD/tn.sh.	−0.74%	Bullish (high export sales)
CBOT	Jul ’25 Soyoil	47.01 US¢/lb	+0.26%	Neutral
DCE	Jul ’25 Soybeans (CN)	4,119 CNY/t	+0.19%	Stable

🌍 Current Spot Market Offers

Origin	Location	Type	Price (USD/kg)	Change
US	Washington D.C., FOB	No. 2	0.33	N/C
IN	New Delhi, FOB	Sortex clean	0.71	N/C
UA	Odesa, FOB	–	0.36	N/C
CN	Beijing, FOB	Yellow, organic	0.70	+0.03
CN	Beijing, FOB	Yellow	0.63	+0.04

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Export Weakness: U.S. old crop soybean sales fell to a 15-week low at 146,034 t (−56% YoY), reflecting flat demand from overseas buyers.
• Soymeal Demand: Weekly soymeal exports surged to 603,169 t – the highest since October and well above expectations, providing a bright spot for processors.
• Trade & Policy: Easing tensions with the EU reduced risk premiums, but weak Asian demand capped upside.
• USDA Data: Anticipation over April crush and oil stocks may trigger volatility at the week’s open.
• Fund Positioning: Managed money expanded net-long soybeans (+24,043 to 36,967 contracts), while covering shorts in soymeal, reflecting strategic repositioning.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Weather: U.S. Midwest fields reported favourable soil and planting conditions, which trimmed weather risk premiums and spurred selling. Conversely, rapid rainfall events in Brazil and Argentina are being monitored for late crop impacts.
• Processing Margins: CBOT nearby crush margin remains positive, buoyed by resilient soymeal demand despite soft bean prices.
• Stock Situation: USDA forecast for end-2024/25 U.S. soybean stocks still above 350 million bushels, pointing to ample supplies unless weather or export surprises intervene.

🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Region Impact

• Midwestern U.S.: Forecasts show continued mild and dry planting weather for major soybean regions (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana) with above-average soil moisture and no major heat/drought threats for the next 7 days.
• Brazil/Argentina: A mix of rain and dryness persists; potential minor harvest delays but no critical impacts expected as most of the South American crop is already harvested or secured.

🌐 World Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (mt)	2024/25 Use (mt)	2024/25 Stock (mt)
USA	120.5	64.5	9.5
Brazil	153.0	54.2	33.1
Argentina	52.5	46.6	7.2
China (import)	18.0	116.5	32.6

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bearish tone persists for beans; rallies present forward pricing opportunities for physical sellers.
• Strong soymeal sales may support crush margins – consider product-linked hedges.
• Monitor USDA crush/oil stock data for potential momentum shifts.
• Speculators: Short-term volatility expected around planting reports—consider reducing risk positions ahead of Tuesday’s USDA update.
• Watch for weather-driven supply disruptions, especially if U.S. weather turns less favourable.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Product	3-Day Outlook
CBOT	Soybeans Jul ’25	Consolidation near 1,040 US¢/bu; downside risk if export sales remain weak
DCE	Soybeans Jul ’25	Stable to slight gains amid local demand support at 4,110 – 4,140 CNY/t
CBOT	Soymeal Jul ’25	Possible further upside if export strength continues; resistance at $298/tn.sh.

Summary: The soybean market is in the throes of short-term bearishness for beans, balanced by vivid strength in soymeal. Weather and near-term USDA fundamental data will be decisive for direction in the coming days. Market participants should remain nimble and prepared for headline-driven volatility.