Soybeans Under Pressure: Trade Tensions and Brazilian Competition Reshape Global Soya Market

The global soybean market faces a turbulent period as escalating US-China trade tensions threaten to upend established trade flows and depress prices for American farmers. With China accounting for over half of US soybean exports, any prolonged disruption in trade relations could have outsized consequences for US producers and the broader global market. According to AgResource, US soybean exports could drop by 20%—down to 1.5 billion bushels—if a US-China deal is not reached soon. This would likely drive farm gate prices down to $9.10 per bushel for 2025/26, well below the USDA’s forecast. While a temporary truce in the trade war has been announced, Chinese tariffs—even at a reduced 10%—continue to make US soybeans uncompetitive versus Brazilian supplies. Meanwhile, Brazil is poised to export an additional 20 million metric tons from a record harvest, further solidifying its dominance in the Chinese market. With Brazil now supplying roughly 70% of China’s soybean imports, American farmers face growing uncertainty and the risk of long-term market share erosion. Weather conditions, speculative positioning, and global stock levels will continue to play critical roles in shaping near-term price action and trade flows.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Purity	Organic	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Date	Sentiment
CN	Yellow, Organic	Beijing	99.8%	Yes	FOB	0.65	0.67	2025-05-14	Bearish
CN	Yellow	Beijing	99.5%	No	FOB	0.58	0.60	2025-05-14	Bearish
US	No. 2	Washington D.C.	–	No	FOB	0.34	0.34	2025-05-07	Neutral
IN	Sortex Clean	New Delhi	–	No	FOB	0.73	0.73	2025-05-07	Neutral
UA	–	Odesa	–	No	FOB	0.36	0.36	2025-05-07	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US Exports: Projected to fall by 20% to 1.5 billion bushels if no trade deal is reached with China.
• Brazil: Record harvest and an additional 20 million metric tons available for export as of September 1, 2025.
• China: Sources 70% of soybean imports from Brazil, reducing reliance on US supplies.
• US Farm Gate Prices: Could drop to $9.10/bushel (2025/26) vs. USDA forecast of $10.25/bushel.
• Tariffs: Chinese duties on US soybeans, even at a reduced 10%, keep US beans uncompetitive.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Downgraded export and price forecasts due to trade uncertainty.
• Speculative Positioning: Hedge funds and speculators have turned more bearish amid negative trade headlines and robust South American supply.
• Global Inventories: Expected to rise due to larger Brazilian output and lower US exports.
• Comparative Advantage: Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper and tariff-free for Chinese buyers, further pressuring US market share.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Current forecasts indicate normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, supporting crop development. However, late-planted areas remain vulnerable to summer heatwaves.
• Brazil: Harvest concluded with favorable weather; soil moisture supports strong yields for the next cycle.
• Argentina: Mild weather and adequate rainfall expected, with no major threats to yields.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (MMT)	2024/25 Exports (MMT)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (MMT)
Brazil	163	100	34
USA	112	44	11
Argentina	51	7	27
China (Imports)	18	–	32

📆 Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Monitor US-China trade negotiations closely; failure to reach a deal by late summer will likely trigger further price declines.
• Expect continued bearish sentiment if Brazilian exports remain robust and US export pace lags.
• Watch speculative positioning for signs of capitulation or short-covering rallies.
• Producers: Consider forward sales to lock in current prices ahead of potential further declines.
• Buyers: Favor Brazilian or Argentine origins for cost-competitive supplies, especially for China-bound shipments.
• Volatility likely to persist around trade headlines and weather developments in the US Midwest.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
CBOT (US No. 2)	0.34	0.33 – 0.34	Bearish
Beijing (CN Yellow, Organic)	0.65	0.64 – 0.65	Bearish
Beijing (CN Yellow)	0.58	0.57 – 0.58	Bearish