Soybeans Under Pressure: U.S. Harvest Begins as Brazil Sets Export Record, China Stays on Sidelines

The global soybean market is facing a pivotal moment as the 2025 U.S. harvest kicks off amid subdued Chinese demand, while Brazil continues to expand its dominance by setting new export records. U.S. farmers are reporting that, despite a slightly higher projected output this season, prices have dipped to USD 450–455 per tonne—a notable decline from last year’s highs. The absence of significant Chinese buying, traditionally a major support for the U.S. market, is contributing to this bearish outlook. Instead, China’s appetite has been satisfied by record-setting, competitively priced Brazilian soybeans, which are currently available at USD 435–440 per tonne. With favorable logistics and a robust bumper crop, Brazil has managed to capture an even larger share of global trade, weakening U.S. export prospects.

Industry experts suggest that without a major shift in Chinese procurement patterns or unexpected supply shocks (such as adverse South American weather), soybeans are likely to face continued price pressure during the critical harvest window. However, the market remains on edge, as any sudden demand uptick from China or weather disruptions in South America could rapidly alter the price trajectory and global sentiment in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date
China	Yellow, organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	0.77	2025-09-25
China	Yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	0.67	2025-09-25
US	No. 2	–	No	Washington D.C.	0.39	2025-09-19
India	Sortex clean	–	No	New Delhi	0.76	2025-09-19
Ukraine	–	–	No	Odesa	0.34	2025-09-19

Exchange	Closing Price (USD/tonne)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT	453	-1.8%	Bearish
Euronext	457	-1.0%	Bearing
Brazil FOB	437	+0.5%	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• U.S. Harvest: 2025–26 U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.1 billion bushels (111.5 million tonnes), marginally above last year, but exportable surplus may be limited if Chinese demand doesn’t return.
• Brazil’s Record Crop: 2024–25 exports hit a new record at 102.5 million tonnes, as Brazil remains the world’s leading exporter.
• Chinese Demand: China is prioritizing Brazilian beans for cost and freight reasons; its absence from the U.S. market weighs heavily on prices.
• Other Crops: Competing crops in India and other regions show mixed price trends, offering little spillover support to soybeans.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Output Forecast: Elevated output but declining acreage in some states.
• Stocks: U.S. ending stocks expected to rise slightly, but overall global carryout remains comfortable due to Brazil’s supply.
• Speculative Position: Large funds remain net short amid bearish sentiment, limiting upside until fundamental shifts occur.
• Trade Flows: European and Asian buyers increasingly secure Brazilian cargoes.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• U.S. Midwest: Stable to slightly above-average temperatures forecast for the next week, favorable for harvest pace but with some risk of localized showers potentially slowing fieldwork in Iowa and Illinois.
• Brazil: Extended dry periods predicted in Mato Grosso and Paraná could impact final yields if dryness persists into October; most regions have enjoyed excellent conditions so far.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Production (MMT)	2025/26 Projection (MMT)	Ending Stocks (MMT)
USA	110.4	111.5	8.9
Brazil	156.3	157.0	33.1
Argentina	48.1	49.2	7.9
China (imports)	97.9	99.4	18.5

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔻 Short-term pressure: Supply from Brazil and lack of Chinese demand will weigh on prices through harvest.
• 👀 Watch Chinese moves: Any sudden Chinese buying of U.S. cargo deeply supportive for prices, so monitor daily tenders.
• 🌦️ Weather risk: Any adverse South American weather could result in rapid price rebounds—hedge accordingly.
• 📦 Global stocks: Remain ample, curbing strong rallies unless weather or trade shocks emerge.
• 🔄 Action: Sellers should consider gradual sales on rallies; buyers may benefit from staged coverage, especially if price dips persist.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

• CBOT (USD/tonne): 450–454
• Euronext (EUR/tonne): 455–458
• Brazil FOB (USD/tonne): 435–440
• Price direction: Slight downward bias unless Chinese buying emerges or weather issues hit Brazil