Spain’s Almond Crop Set to Surpass 135,000 t in 2026‑27

Spain’s almond kernel production is projected to climb to about 135,250 tonnes in 2026‑27, up 6.6% on last season and roughly one‑third above the five‑year average, pointing to a structurally larger crop. Despite localized weather and pest issues, expanding area and maturing orchards underpin a broadly bullish supply outlook. The coming season will be shaped by the rapid growth of productive area to almost 646,000 hectares and the strong contribution of new plantations in Andalusia, Castile‑La Mancha, Aragon and other regions. While drought, frost and hail have curbed output in parts of Castile‑La Mancha, the Balearic Islands and key organic zones such as Granada and Almería, gains elsewhere more than compensate. The sector faces persistent pest pressure, but overall yield expectations remain solid, implying a more comfortable domestic and export supply balance and likely easing of medium‑term price tensions.

Production & Area Expansion

Spain’s almond kernel output is forecast at 135,250 tonnes in 2026‑27, a 6.6% increase from last season and 33% above the five‑year average. This confirms a strong structural uptrend in Spanish almond supply and consolidates the country’s position as a key European origin.

Total productive almond area has reached 645,964 hectares, about 6% higher year on year. More than 36,000 additional hectares have entered production, with particularly robust growth in Andalusia, Castile‑La Mancha and Aragon as young orchards mature and recent investments start to pay off.

Regional Dynamics & Risks

Weather has broadly supported vegetative growth across most producing regions, lifting yield expectations versus recent seasons. Murcia, Valencia and Extremadura are set for strong output gains thanks to new production areas and favourable agronomic conditions.

However, the picture is uneven. Castile‑La Mancha and the Balearic Islands are expected to record lower production than last season due to drought, elevated temperatures, frost and localised hailstorms. Pest pressure from almond wasp and bollworm remains a structural concern, adding uncertainty to final yields in affected orchards.

Organic almond area continues to expand rapidly, exceeding 172,500 hectares and now representing over 27% of Spain’s almond‑producing area. Yet organic volumes will be constrained in 2026‑27 after severe frost damage in Granada, where some municipalities suffered near‑total losses, and in Almería, where losses are estimated at around 40% of the crop.

Weather Outlook for Key Regions

Short‑term forecasts for early June in southern and eastern Spain (e.g. Andalusia and Murcia) point to predominantly sunny and very warm conditions, with daytime highs often in the low‑to‑mid 30s°C and mild nights.

These stable, dry conditions are generally supportive for nut development and orchard operations, but continued heat may increase irrigation demand and could exacerbate drought stress in rain‑fed plots. Pest monitoring will remain critical as warm weather tends to favour insect pressure, especially in already affected areas.

Market Implications

• Supply: The 135,250‑tonne forecast and larger productive base imply a meaningfully more comfortable supply environment versus the recent five‑year period.
• Regional shifts: Strong growth in Andalusia, Murcia, Valencia, Extremadura and Aragon is gradually offsetting weaker or more climate‑exposed regions such as parts of Castile‑La Mancha, the Balearic Islands and some organic zones.
• Organic segment: Despite acreage growth, weather‑related losses in Granada and Almería signal tighter availability of organic kernels relative to conventional supply.
• Risk factors: Drought, heat spikes, frost pockets, hailstorms and ongoing pest pressure (almond wasp, bollworm) remain key downside risks to the current optimistic production outlook.

Trading & Price Outlook

• For buyers (roasters, processors, confectionery): The expected 6.6% year‑on‑year production increase and 33% gain over the five‑year average suggest improved medium‑term availability. Consider gradually extending coverage for 2026‑27, especially for conventional product, while monitoring how weather and pests evolve through the season.
• For sellers (growers, cooperatives, traders): Increased supply and regional competition may cap upside in kernel prices, particularly for standard grades. Producers in weather‑ or pest‑affected areas may still enjoy relative premiums, especially in the organic segment where frost‑related losses could tighten spot availability.
• Risk management: Given pockets of climatic and pest uncertainty, maintaining diversified regional sourcing and actively hedging a portion of forward sales remains prudent. Close tracking of in‑season yield updates and orchard health will be key for timing large transactions.

Short-Term Directional View (Next 3 Days)

Physical market activity is likely to stay relatively calm in the very short term, with stable to slightly softer indications as participants digest the strong production forecast and monitor orchard conditions under warm, dry weather. No abrupt price shocks are expected over the next three days, but any new reports of intensified pest damage or localised weather events could trigger brief, region‑specific firmness, particularly in organic and high‑quality lots.